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Is China’s economy on the verge of collapse?

Sharon Adebola
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0
Is China’s economy on the verge of collapse?

China’s economy is set to experience many challenges if it does not actively combat its demographic issues as the working population ages.

China’s remarkable economic growth over the past few decades has been closely tied to its vast population. However, the country’s demographics are undergoing a significant transformation that is set to have profound implications for its economy.

As China’s population ages, the nation must navigate a complex landscape of challenges and opportunities to sustain its economic momentum and remain the world’s second-largest economy.

One of the most notable demographic shifts in China is its ageing population. It appears the country is now suffering the effects of the one-child policy implemented between 1979-2015 to mitigate rapid population growth. Hence the emergence of a rapidly ageing society.

The proportion of elderly citizens aged 65 and above is rising as the proportion of the working-age population starts to decline. Statista estimates the size of China’s population between 15 to 64 years (working age) is set to decrease by 117 million between now and 2040.

This foreshadows the magnitude of China’s demographic problems starting to surface. In decades to come, as people start to retire from the labour force there seem to be fewer qualified people to replace them. Could we possibly see the downfall of such an economic power?

Source: UnSplash

Implications for the economy

Firstly, the labour force faces potential shortages, which may be incredibly problematic as the workforce will constrain economic growth.

As the labour force shrinks the productive capacity of the economy shrinks as productivity slows down, meaning output is negatively impacted.

It would naturally follow as output falls economic growth also falls. Depending on the severity of China’s demographic issues in the future, this could lead to sustained periods of recession, which is two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

Secondly, the anticipation of a recession would add to existent deflationary pressure, which simply means the propensity of consumers and investors to spend falls, negatively impacting aggregate demand.

If the Chinese government fails to quickly address such possibilities, China’s economy may be on its way to collapse.

All hope is not lost

There is still hope for China. To counter the effects of an aging workforce China has heavily invested in automation, artificial intelligence and robotics.

If their investments pay off, these technologies may help to bridge the productivity gap caused by a shrinking workforce. However, the transition to a fully technology-driven economy requires a skilled workforce competent in operating these advanced systems.

Flexibility, foresight and effective policy implementation will be essential to ensure a prosperous future for the nation amidst this demographic shift, or they face the steepest economic decline in years.

Cashless Societies: Good or Bad for democracy?

Aaron Fenton-Hewitt
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Cashless Societies: Good or Bad for democracy?

Over the past few years, questions and concerns have been raised about the effects that modern technology is having on society, and how it affects civil liberties and freedoms.

Over the next five weeks, these effects will be explored at Common Sense.

Is the death of cash bad?

It’s undeniable that contactless and digital payments have revolutionised the way we interact with the world. With more and more businesses only accepting digital transactions for payment, it certainly does seem as if this is the future of commerce.

Online banking is quite a convenient tool. Being able to send money to a person wherever they are in the world in a matter of seconds is something past generations could only dream of. Digitally paying for items, combined with next day delivery service, has numbered the days of having to physically enter a shop.

Digital payments have created a culture of convenience amongst consumers. Convenience, being the key word here, begs the question: is there a catch to this?

In the last few years there have been several concerns raised regarding banking companies, and whether or not a cashless society is truly beneficial for citizens or if it could spell the end of absolute financial autonomy. Many are fearful that such centralised power could be open to abuse by banks, manifesting itself in the form of political discrimination or a self-appointed role of the ‘morality police’.

A recent example of this was the Farage/Coutts scandal, where it was revealed that the bank’s justification for removing the former UKIP Party leader’s accounts from their platform was in part due to his political beliefs that ‘[went against Coutts’] position as an inclusive organisation’.

In December 2020 Visa and MasterCard announced they’d be blocking purchases to adult site PornHub, following a report from the New York Times that alleged the website allowed videos without the consent of the person featured, including revenge pornography, onto the platform.

They subsequently removed approximately 10 million videos within 24 hours following the article’s release.

It was also alleged that the website ‘monetised child rape’ and that it did not have enough safeguards in place to distinguish between legal and illegal content.

The concern that many have from these cases – especially the former – is the existence of a powerful technocracy that can seemingly, for any reason, remove the ability for a person or business to receive or make payments.

It could be argued that the latter case was for moral and ethical reasons. The former case, however, is a demonstrable example of why people are concerned.

The aftermath of TNYT’s bombshell article resulted in Pornhub restricting downloads and removing millions of videos

“Libertarianism can only go so far”

I am a strong believer in free market enterprise and capitalism. I believe in the right to ownership of private property, and I am generally against the idea of state intervention into private business, whether financially or personally. The free market should mean exactly that – free.

The emergence of a technocracy however has, admittedly, tested my resolve. Libertarianism can only go so far.

There are two issues I have with technocracy. The first is the push to remove cash, which removes the competition of the method of payment itself. The second is the centralisation of economic power that comes with it.

My issue with the former is a straightforward one: the elimination of competition. Without cash, digital payments would be the only option that consumers would have, which in turn would embolden banks and finance companies to increase the price of their services. It would give them a monopoly on payment itself.

The latter is where it becomes more concerning. A cashless society would give banks unprecedented financial power over individuals and society itself, as the decisions of all financial purchases would be solely at their mercy.

As much as one may agree with some justifications for banning a user or company from their platforms (the Visa/MasterCard-Pornhub scenario springs to mind), the mere ability to be able to make those decisions worries many.

At best, these institutions would find themselves with the ability to essentially be the financial ‘morality police’, being able to decide who is able to make purchases, when, to whom, and on what. Any transaction they deem to be ‘against their values’ (which is becoming increasingly subjective) would be refused.

Public speaker and agriculturist Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones MBE speaks about holding those in power to account.

At worst, they would be used as a vital tool in the culture wars. Political lobbies – on both the left and the right – would seize the chance to fill the power vacuum. If either side managed to influence a person in a position of power and/or influence at the bank, it would represent a serious threat to both democracy and individual liberty.

Banks would be used as tools to disrupt (or halt altogether) transactions by political enemies. If you were deemed to be using language or expressing opinions that ‘didn’t align with the bank’s values’, you couldn’t function.

Legally, the bank couldn’t stop you from saying certain things, but they could ban you from using their platform.

Imagine, for example, that a Christian pastor preached against same sex marriage. If Stonewall, or another LGBT organisation, managed to influence senior officials, and convince them that preaching against same sex marriage violated its values, the bank would simply ‘debank’ the pastor.

This would, essentially, undermine free speech and expression, which is a legal right in the UK. It would mean that banks, not the law, could decide what can and can’t be said, practically.

In the modern world it’s impossible to function without a bank account. It’s one thing to believe in free markets and libertarianism, but what happens when the company becomes the market itself?

Are civil liberties for sale?

A free market should be exactly that – free. Technocracy is a threat to this. If private companies can decide what an individual spends their money on, then by definition it is not a ‘free’ market.

Is the ULEZ expansion unfair to low-income families?

Sharon Adebola
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0
Is the ULEZ expansion unfair to low-income families?

As of August 29th 2023, the much anticipated Ultra Low Emission Zone expansion will come into full effect in an effort to reduce emissions and pursue cleaner air. 

The ULEZ initially introduced in Central London in 2019 is expanding to cover a broader area. New areas ULEZ will expand to include: Bromley, Chingford, Heathrow and other locations. 

Following the success of ULEZ in central London, 97% of vehicles meet cleaner standards, NOx emissions have fallen by 26% within 4 years and PM2.5 emissions decreased by 19%. Such progress prompted the ambitious expansion plan that has now commenced. 

Air pollution has been a pressing concern in London for years, with its negative impact on public health and the environment becoming increasingly evident. ULEZ was introduced by levying charges on vehicles that did not meet strict emission standards when driving in a specific zone. 

Source: Transport for London

The expansion is expected to lead to significant reductions in nitrogen oxide (NOx) and particulate matter emissions, which are major contributors to respiratory issues and air pollution-related health problems. Hence the initiative aims to increase the use of cleaner vehicles such as electric or hybrid cars. 

If vehicles do not meet ULEZ emission standards, owners could face a daily £12.50 fee. You can check if your vehicle meets ULEZ emission standards here. 

Scrappage scheme

For owners of vehicles that fall short of these standards, help is available through the scrappage scheme TfL has introduced. London residents are eligible for the Mayor of London’s £160 million scrappage scheme, allowing residents to receive payments to scrap their vehicle or choose TfL transport passes that hold a similar monetary value to the payout. 

There are also alternative offers available whether you apply for the scrappage scheme or not. Existing ULEZ exemptions have been gracefully extended for vehicles that will be ready after the ULEZ expansion. 

Unfair to low-income families

While the ULEZ is a commendable step forward, some things must be addressed. A daily charge of £12.50 for non-compliant vehicles may disproportionately affect low-income households or small businesses. Many are already suffering the impacts of the cost-of-living crisis and will be pushed into a place of deeper financial struggle. 

For some, their non-compliant vehicles is a means of providing for their families as they travel to work. Now there is an additional cost that they must now consider as they commute to work.

Although it’s anticipated that London and places beyond will experience improved air quality and health benefits. It is questionable whether the ULEZ expansion could have taken place at a later time that would favour people during the present financial struggle many are currently going through. 

Big Win For Biden Administration In ROK-Japan Rapprochement

Shane Green
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Big Win For Biden Administration In ROK-Japan Rapprochement

From alliance protection to alliance projection. The rapprochement between two long-time adversaries with deeply held historical grievances marks the beginning of a new security chapter in Asia and the Indo-Pacific.

Last week, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio met together with U.S. President Joe Biden, in a historic summit which outlined commitments of long-time foes South Korea and Japan to expand cooperation trilaterally with the United States.

Specifically, the joint communique released by the three leaders identifies cooperation with an intention to uphold the ‘rules-based international order’, continued efforts to defend and denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, and enhanced collaboration in economic, scientific, and technological innovation.

Tangible outputs from the meeting include agreements to improve trilateral mechanisms facilitating ‘regular and timely communication’ between leadership teams, in addition to increased military-to-military co-operation between the ROK and Japan.

Yet, the significance of the summit lies not in its tangibles but its symbolic embodiment of rapprochement between two long-time adversaries to counter common threats in the region.

How South Korea and Japan will co-operate against North Korea on defence

The existential threat of WMDs is once-again a poignant one, thanks to the global-cinematic success of Oppenheimer. In South Korea, such threats are very real indeed.

On Wednesday 23rd August 2023, millions of South Koreans took part in a nationwide civil defence drill – the first in six years – amidst rising threats from North Korea. In an eerie affair, minute-long air-raid sirens signalled residents to evacuate to the nearest bomb shelter. The U.S. nuclear umbrella is committed to defending the South in the event of an attack.

For Japan, North Korea posing a direct threat is a more recent phenomenon, thanks to the North’s advancements in its ballistic missile programme. In July, North Korea fired a ballistic missile which landed within Japanese maritime waters. Co-operation with South Korea and the United States on ballistic missile defence has become an increasing priority, but not the foremost priority.

It’s the economy…stupid? Economics underpins ROK-Japan rapprochement

The most pressing national security concern of both Japan and the ROK today is China. China’s ability to hold-at-ransom the economies and supply chains of the ROK and Japan is perceived as a major strategic vulnerability, given its increasingly assertive behaviour in the Indo-Pacific.

The joint communique issued from Camp David identifies explicitly ’dangerous, aggressive, and coercive behaviour’ by China in the South China Sea as troublesome. The fact this concern is voiced ahead of concerns regarding North Korea is no coincidence.

China is the largest trading partner to both Japan and the ROK. The two have thus negotiated a careful balancing act historically, as key U.S. military allies, but with strong economic linkages with Chinese markets.

However, a strategic shift has clearly occurred, with both the ROK and Japan now in near-full strategic alignment with U.S. foreign policy toward China marking a transition from alliance protection to alliance projection.

What’s changed?

This year, South Korean President Yoon Seok Yul announced an agreement detailing the ROK would no longer demand that Japanese companies compensate Korean victims of wartime forced labor, with a state-run foundation funded by private companies instead footing the bill.

The enslavement of many Koreans as part of Japan’s forceful occupation of Korea between 1910 and 1945 has long remained wedged in the Korean psyche and had been a key inflection point in a tumultuous bilateral relationship. Under Japanese occupation, over 150,000 Koreans were forced to work in factories and mines, some to enlist as soldiers, or in the case of many Korean women – work in military brothels to service Japanese soldiers.

Victims of Japanese forced labor victims during the colonial period, hold banners reading “Apologize for forced labour and fulfill the compensation” during an anti-Japan protest on Liberation Day in Seoul, South Korea, August 15, 2019. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji

Despite strong domestic opposition to the deal, it seems President Yoon Suk Yeol saw the settlement as an acceptable means-to-an-end of hostilities between the two nations, and the beginning of a new chapter of co-operation against an increasingly assertive China. This was undoubtedly mediated by the U.S., representing a seriously impressive piece of diplomacy by the Biden administration, and a symbolic moment demarcating a new age of Japan-ROK relations.

China views the Camp David summit as a further step taken by the U.S. in its attempts to forge a NATO for the Indo-Pacific

China-Russia Joint Sea military exercises in response to AUKUS announcement. From a military port in Zhoushan, East China’s Zhejiang Province on December 20, 2022. Global Times.

China views tri-lateral co-operation as part of U.S. plans to forge a NATO for the Indo-Pacific to contain China. Last month, NATO held its annual summit in Vilneus. With the ROK and Japan both present, as well as Australia and New Zealand. A joint statement released from the summit took aim at China and the PRC.

Meanwhile, talks have begun to open a NATO liaison office in Japan – the first in Asia. The U.S. denies development of a NATO for the Pacific, but it’s easy to sympathize with Chinese accusations that the U.S. is playing cold war bloc politics amidst other new security initiatives announced in the region. AUKUS is a trilateral security agreement between Australia, The United Kingdom, and the United States where the latter will provide the former with nuclear submarines for patrol in the Indo-Pacific. Whilst the QUAD is another U.S. led strategic security initiative to counter Chinese influence, with Australia, Japan, and India partners.

In much of Asia, the shadow of colonialism and hard-fought independence taints the ideal of submission to a Western-led security alliance. This begs the question as to whether such developments represent a NATO for the Indo-Pacific, or NATO in the Indo-Pacific. The prospect of NATO expansion brought war to Ukraine. Having already poked the bear, the U.S. and its allies now risk poking the panda.

The Lionesses encouraged girls to dream big

Sharon Adebola
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The Lionesses encouraged girls to dream big

Following the Lionesses defeat on Sunday they have certainly won the hearts of the British people, inspiring many through their tenacity and grit.

In hindsight, the Lionesses absolutely persisted through this World Cup. Never in history has an England team reached a FIFA women’s world cup. England has qualified for a women’s world cup six times, as their journey terminated at the quarter-finals in 1995, 2007 and 2011. They finished fourth in 2019 and third in 2015.

Match insights into the Lionesses’ performance at the world cup this year include winning 2-1 against Columbia allowing them to progress to the semi-finals where they beat Australia 3-1, which allowed them to enter the finals where they were unfortunately defeated 1-0 by Spain.

Source: FIFA

Encouraging girls to dream big

The tenacity of the Lionesses inspired a new era of women’s football that captured the hearts of fans and ignited the aspirations of the next generation. The tournament showcased the immense talent, dedication, and determination of female athletes, paving the way for an empowering narrative that will undoubtedly shape the future of the sport.

The Lionesses’ journey in the 2023 women’s world cup shattered age-old stereotypes surrounding women’s football. With each electrifying match, they displayed skill, strategy and athleticism that easily compares to men’s football. The powerful performance of the Lionesses’ has proven football is definitely not defined by gender but by passion and dedication to the sport.

They have undoubtedly encouraged young girls to dream big and pursue their goals fearlessly no matter the previous traditional beliefs of society.

They have emerged not just as mere athletes but as role models and true women of substance. The level of leadership and persistence when tackling challenges on the pitch was truly admirable. Demonstrating success is not solely about winning but about personal growth and seeking to make a positive impact within society thinking beyond themselves.
Lessons to be learnt by every budding athlete.

“This is why we play”

In conversation with Sky News, the team’s captain, Millie Bright, emotionally mentioned “This is why we play…we play for all the little kids out there…boys and girls that hopefully wanna grow up and be like us”

Being exemplary figures is something this team have embodied whole-heartedly by acknowledging their responsibility as female public figures, seeking to change the narrative around women’s football.

The current PM, Rishi Sunak echoes the thoughts of many when tweeting that the team has “already secured [their] legacy as game changers” going on to later say how proud he was of the team.

Consequently, interest in women’s football has surged with communities encouraged to invest in girl’s youth programmes and provide a platform for aspiring players.

As media coverage and public interest grow, perceived notions about the capability and marketability of female athletes are being challenged as we move towards more progressive societal outlooks.

Students ‘robbed’ of their efforts due to grade deflation

Sharon Adebola
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Students ‘robbed’ of their efforts due to grade deflation

Amid A-level grade deflation, UCAS reports over 10,000 students have gained university places through clearing; a sharp increase from 6,600 last year.

Traditionally, A-level results day in the UK is a time of excitement and anticipation for many students. It marks the culmination of years of hard work and study, determining their academic trajectory and university prospects.

However, in recent years, due to covid disruptions, the education landscape has been painted by concerns of grade deflation and increased anxiety amongst students.

UCAS reports over 200,000 A-level students have gained places at their first or second choices, which is almost 10,000 fewer than the 2022 figures. Post-pandemic adjustments to A-level grades meant thousands missed out on their initial course offers due to adjustments made to restore grades back to pre-pandemic levels.

Grade deflation is where students receive lower grades than anticipated due to changes in assessment methods and adjustments made to marking standards. While the goal of maintaining the integrity of academic standards is crucial, the unintended consequences of grade deflation have been far-reaching. Students who would have comfortably secured university places are left grappling with lower grades and unexpectedly enter clearing.

Source: GILAXIA

The rise of clearing

This year clearing has gained new prominence due to grade depletion.

Clearing traditionally involves students who have narrowly missed their offers gaining spaces at universities they have not previously applied to. For many this process can be daunting as uncertainty around finding a course/place best suited to them can get the better of them. Hence, pressure mounts as they navigate unfamiliar territory that their future depends on.

The issue here stems from A-level students feeling like they have borne the brunt of covid impacting their education and still suffer the consequences post-pandemic. Although the integrity of academic standards must be maintained, surely there must be extra considerations put in place in an effort to support and acknowledge the severity of their situation.

Many feel ‘robbed’ of their efforts

The reality for many of these students has been periods of constant disruption where departments and staff are sent home due to covid outbreaks, and students have to self-teach and sit exams on content from a syllabus they’ve briefly completed. Yet, the education system has still not adequately performed to support these students as many feel ‘robbed’ of their efforts.

As grade deflation continues to impact A-level results, many fear a similar situation for GCSE results day on the 24th of August 2023. Moving forward, educators and policymakers must consider strategies to effectively address the post-pandemic long-term impacts that have emerged. For effective progress to happen, transparency in grading methodologies must be enhanced ensuring better guidance is provided to students. This in turn aids their understanding of grading.

Welcome To The Indo-Pacific: The World’s Chessboard

Shane Green
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Welcome To The Indo-Pacific: The World’s Chessboard

Connecting the geographies of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, the Indo-Pacific region hosts over half of the world’s people, almost two thirds of the world’s economy, and seven of the world’s largest militaries – not least China and the United States. Many remain unaware of escalating tensions and the dangers they pose to global order. This article is your introduction to continued coverage of the region, where we will take a deep-dive into some of the key issues defining the region.

Two superpowers competing for geopolitical influence, the world’s most valuable supply chain of semi-conductors, territorial disputes in the South-China Sea, and a nuclearized Korean peninsula. Welcome to the Indo-Pacific: the world’s chessboard.

Geopolitical Rivalry

The two superpowers of China and the United States shape the Indo-Pacific. Historically, the relationship is one of complexity. The infamous secret meeting between Henry Kissinger and Zhou Enlai in 1971 paved the way for Nixon’s visit to China in 1972, and China’s opening to the world. Deng Xiaoping’s historic trip to the U.S. socialized the ideal of improved Sino-U.S. relations following the war against communism. Just 10 years later, the world witnessed the brutal suppression of dissent in the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, relations cooled.

Globalization since has seen the two economies become heavily intertwined. China’s rapid economic growth in the prevailing decades has seen it embrace leadership of development initiatives around the world. Thanks to its Belt and Road Initiative, China has invested more than US$3 trillion in global infrastructure. Such leadership threatens U.S. pre-eminence as the de-facto global leader, creating a sense of urgency, often culminating in China hysteria and calls for economic decoupling.

Semi-conductors

Continued economic growth demands technological know-how. Last week, the White House announced a ban on U.S. investment in Chinese tech sectors, seeking to limit Chinese progress in key strategic areas. One such area is semi-conductors – the world’s most critical technology.

Ingrained into every aspect of modern-being, they are the chips powering the technological revolution. From computers, smartphones, and 5G networks, to artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and advanced weaponry. The U.S. and its Indo-Pacific allies in Korea, Taiwan, and Japan dominate the industry, with 39%, 16%, 12%, and 9% of market share respectively. Much of America’s military primacy stems from its ability to re-purpose semiconductor technology to military uses.

Reliance on U.S. technology limits Chinese capabilities – both militarily and industrially. China has invested heavily to develop indigenous semiconductor technology and supply chain capabilities. Chinese firms doubled their market share since 2015, now accounting for 6% of total market share. Currently, China remains crucially dependent on the U.S. and its allies at key stages of production, whom would like to keep it that way.

Territorial Disputes

The South-China Sea is a key source of tension in the Indo-Pacific. Competing territorial claims position a host of countries at odds with one another, including some of the region’s largest actors.

China, Vietnam, the Phillipines, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei all claim sovereignty over disputed territory in the South-China Sea. Most notably, China’s infamous nine-dash line, in which it claims the vast majority of the South-China Sea, is vehemently opposed by many of its neighbours and the United States.

Just recently, Chinese Coastal Guards drew attention following a confrontation with a Philippine supply ship whereby the former fired at the latter with water cannons.  A U.S. mutual defence ally, encounters like this one edge us nervously toward a U.S.-China military confrontation.

The Korean Peninsula

Heading East, the Korean Peninsula is one of the world’s most heavily fortified areas. Despite the 1953 Ceasefire, tensions remain high between the North and the South following the Korean War, owing much to the North’s likely successful development of nuclear weapons. Both desire reunification in the long-term.

The Kim dynasty, which leads North Korea, casts a long shadow. The family are paranoid, perhaps justifiably, of attempts to oust the regime, led by the United States. The U.S. retains over 28,500 troops in South Korea, alongside a full range of conventional, nuclear and missile-defence capabilities. The U.S. and South Korea share a Mutual Defence Treaty dating back to 1953.

The Korean Peninsula is an important strategic buffer zone for the United States and China in their own ideological confrontation, hence their continued support following the war, for the two countries either side of the demilitarized zone (DMZ).

Next Time

The Indo-Pacific is a region mired by security dilemmas. In the coverage that follows, we’ll delve deeper into the issues outlined above, and beyond.

Farage has done the British public a favour

Aaron Fenton-Hewitt
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Farage has done the British public a favour

NatWest CEO Alison Rose has resigned after admitting she was the source of incorrect information that led to a false BBC report claiming that Nigel Farage had his account shut down due to financial issues rather than political affiliation.

In an apology to Farage, Rose wrote, “I was wrong to respond to any question raised by the BBC about this case. I want to extend my sincere apologies to Mr Farage for the personal hurt this has caused him and I have written to him today”.

NatWest chairman Howard Davies said it was a “regrettable error of judgement on her part”.

Farage, 59, demanded an investigation into how his financial information was made available to the public, further escalating a situation between himself and Coutts/NatWest.

This led to a BBC report that attempted to undermine Farage’s accusations by claiming his account was shut down for financial reasons rather than political ones.

BBC business editor Simon Jack publicly apologised to Farage.

Farage has now called for Davies and Coutts CEO Peter Flavel to be sacked.

Nigel Farage calls for sackings at NatWest

Civil liberties are at stake

Nigel Farage has, inadvertently, done the British public a good service by bringing to light a sad and dangerous truth that many people can no longer deny exists.

Technological political discrimination is here. The attempted undermining of Farage’s version of events proves this.

It is an open secret that many have either denied or secretly agreed with due to their opposition to the views of the ‘guilty’ party.

It’s one thing for a company to not want to associate themselves with an individual or brand. The Visa/MasterCard-Pornhub fiasco shows that companies have legal, ethical and financial decisions to make when deciding who to do business with.

It’s another thing entirely for a company to ‘cancel’ a person for expressing legally-held opinions or beliefs that do not conform to a certain political orthodoxy.

Banking is a part of modern living. It is needed to be able to pay for services and products that people need to survive. Banking is itself an essential service.

Therefore to ‘debank’ a person, for no legal reason, is quite a serious issue. Should banks be able to decide who can use their services based on what they believe?

Freedom of speech would be directly impacted, as many individuals would be intimidated into silence on certain topics and ideas.

Banks could be used as a tool to be weaponised by certain political lobbies against their opponents, thereby restricting freedom of speech by proxy.

This could have implications on other services that are considered ‘essential’, such as energy. Could an energy company refuse to provide a person with water, gas or electricity due to their legally-held political beliefs?

Dr. Rakib Ehsan voices his concerns about the Farage-Coutts fiasco

Many people are understandably worried about the implications for such a concept. In fact, the use of cash in itself is seen by some as a political statement, not wanting their financial freedom dictated by private companies.

This could – and probably will, without immediate action from the Government – have implications on the future of freedom of speech.

If freedom of speech is to continue in this country, the Government must act to safeguard it – which could lead to regulatory legislation, applicable to banks and other essential service providers.

What now?

After Rose announced her resignation, NatWest shares fell by 2.5%.

Mr Farage has accused Dame Alison of breaking client confidentiality rules and feels as if she had taken ‘too long’ to resign, saying, “The first rule of banking is client confidentiality. She [Dame Alison] clearly broke that.”

He added that anybody in a more junior position at the bank would have been “out of the door”.

Howard Davies said the bank would now conduct an independent review, in cooperation with the financial regulator, who emphasised the importance of “[having] access to all the necessary information and people in order to investigate what happened swiftly and fully”.

Starmer must unveil bolder policies to win over sceptics

Sharon Adebola
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0
Starmer must unveil bolder policies to win over sceptics

Starmer must be an audacious leader to lead the Labour Party to victory in the next general election.

The party’s defeat in the 2019 general election left the party in a dire state searching for a strong and competent leader. Over the past three years, Starmer’s leadership has come under heavy scrutiny as many question his competence and direction.  

Whilst he demonstrated a measured and pragmatic approach to the party, his style and communication have been deeply criticised for lacking passion and charisma. A charismatic leader is needed to stimulate and energise the public so that a bridge of trust/unity is maintained between the party and the electorate. 

The recent by-elections were not a clean sweep for Labour as they failed to win the Uxbridge & South Ruislip constituency. The Lib Dems also occupied Somerton & Frome by a clean sweep. If anything, this demonstrates more work must be done to fully gain the confidence of the electorate. 

YouGov polls also imply a gap between where the Labour Party seeks to position itself for the upcoming general election compared to its current position. With 0 meaning one would never vote for the party and 1o meaning one would definitely consider voting for the party, there’s a 4.42 chance an individual would consider voting for the Labour Party in the next election. 

However, there’s a 3.13 chance an individual would consider voting for the Tories at the next election. Although support has declined for the conservatives, the Labour party has not drastically gained a number of voters; insinuating there’s part of the electorate that are undecided on how to vote and need clarity on the vision of the labour party. This clarity must emerge from the leader of the party, Kier Starmer. A figure that must uphold the party and provide hope for the electorate. 

Starmer must rethink his communication strategy, fostering new ways to boldly articulate the vision of the Labour Party as he reconnects with the wider electorate. This would strengthen the possibility of the party having a united front and an audacious leader as they gear up towards the general elections. 

Could Labour win big in Uxbridge?

Sharon Adebola
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0
Could Labour win big in Uxbridge?

As the Uxbridge by-election nears, what could this possibly mean for the future of British politics?

The Uxbridge by-election set to happen today, follows the recent resignation of Boris Johnson. The electorate has over 15 candidates to vote for amongst the Tory candidate Steve Tuckwell and Labour candidate Danny Beales. 

Historically, Uxbridge has strongly backed the Tories. However, the recent events of party gate and Johnson’s conduct have given the electorate reason to question the leadership of their constituency. 

Traditionally, by-elections have been known to inform the government about public opinions and gauge the standings of the electorate. Hence, the Uxbridge by-election is a strong indicator of what may happen in the 2024 general election.

Could this be a win for labour?

For some, the Uxbridge by-election may be a strong win for the Labour Party as they lead by a fair percentage in the polls. If so, Danny Beales will become the next elected representative for Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

Moreover, this is Labour’s opportunity to successfully perform in Uxbridge, reassuring their current supporters of their competency. There may be a stronger sense of unity within the party as confidence grows in their leadership.

This by-election is a great opportunity to observe the electorate’s response to policy proposals and build momentum, as we gear up towards the 2024 general election. 

However, Labour policy proposals such as the ULEZ expansion seem unfavourable amongst the Uxbridge electorate, as Labour MPs raise doubts over winning in Uxbridge because of Sadiq Khan’s plans to expand the Ultra-Low Emission Zone, costing many drivers £12.50 per day. 

Although the Uxbridge constituency has been traditionally blue, it’s fair to say victory may just fall into Labour’s hands. The damage done by Tory leadership has convinced the electorate of their current incompetence. This is not to say the Tories may not bounce back. However, it may be time for Labour to take charge this time. 

Could this be a win for labour?

Local councils call for vape ban by 2024

Sharon Adebola
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Local councils call for vape ban by 2024

Local councils urge disposable vapes to be banned by 2024 in the UK due to concerns for the safety of young people

The Local Government Association (LGA) has called for disposable vapes to be banned as concerns grow for the health of young teenagers being exposed to harmful amounts of lead, nickel and chromium. 

Vaping devices have become increasingly popular amongst teenagers and young adults. Their exotic flavouring and bold packaging appear to attract younger teenagers. Although selling vapes to under18s is illegal, some question whether vape manufacturers are intentionally targeting younger buyers.

Illegal vapes contain high levels of lead and nickel indicating young people are consuming twice the daily safe amount of lead and nine times the safe amount of nickel. However, legal vaping devices are commonly viewed as safer alternatives to smoking and incentivise smokers to convert to e-cigarettes.

Reasons for the ban

  • Health concerns: studies link vaping to respiratory/lung issues and long-term health risks. The ban aims to protect public health and shield teenagers that are vulnerable to harmful products. 
  • Regulation: many illegal vape manufacturers have entered the market without adequate safety checks. The ban aims to cover the regulatory gaps that exist in the vaping market.
  • Marketing: questionable marketing tactics targeting the young have promoted asymmetric information that has potentially misled many buyers within the market. Hence, the ban discourages a potential spike in nicotine addicts. 
Photograph: Peter Dazeley/Getty Images

Should the ban go ahead

Bans imposed by 2024 may lead to the rise of a black market for illicit vaping products that may pose even greater safety risks. Moreover, bans may incentivise some individuals to revert back to traditional smoking.

The UK Vaping Industry Association opposes the LGA’s proposal of banning vaping in this statement:

“Experience across the world shows that where blanket bans have been introduced on regulated single-use vapes, there is a massive influx or illegal untested and potentially deadly black-market products which take their place, and this is in nobody’s interest” 

Although the decision to ban vapes reflects the growing concerns over public health, for some banning vapes is viewed as counterintuitive. The risks imposed by banning vapes appear far greater a hindrance than a solution in protecting public health.

Instead, there is a need for tighter regulation of the vaping industry so that ingredient transparency, manufacturing standards and product safety are maintained. 

Ultimately, the ban would restrict the personal freedom of many. Surely people should be free to make autonomous decisions without the council infringing on their individual choices. Older teenagers and young adults have the right to make informed decisions about their health. Hence, One must question whether the council is overstepping.

Huw Edwards: Witch hunt or accountability?

Aaron Fenton-Hewitt
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Huw Edwards: Witch hunt or accountability?

BBC journalist Huw Edwards has been revealed as the mystery presenter at the centre of yet another scandal to rock the BBC.

The Sun published a story stating that a woman had come forward claiming that her child had been paid £35,000 by an unknown male BBC presenter in exchange for nude photos since 2020 – when the now 20-year-old would have been 17 – and how the money was used to fund their cocaine addiction.

Two days later the BBC confirmed that it had suspended the presenter. The following day the lawyer of the alleged victim said, “Nothing inappropriate or unlawful has taken place between our client and the BBC personality and the allegations reported in The Sun newspaper are rubbish“.

After a second alleged victim came forward, accusing Edwards of sending ‘abusive and menacing’ messages on a dating app, the Metropolitan Police said that “[there was] no information to indicate that a criminal offence has been committed”.

His wife Vicky, in a statement, named him as the under-fire presenter, citing his hospitalisation for ‘mental health issues’.

Witch hunt or accountability?

With the advent of social media, everyone believes themself to be a journalist. Technology has given everyone the ability to have an opinion and express it openly.

However, in recent times there have been debates about where the line between accountability and harassment is, in regard to under-fire public figures.

Public figures such as Edwards do not exist in a bubble. He is employed by the BBC, which brings a certain level of accountability but also a professional relationship with his colleagues and the company he works for.

BBC Radio 2 presenter Jeremy Vine calls out false accusations against him and his colleagues

The BBC is subject to the laws of libel and defamation. If, for example, they were to broadcast a statement against an individual without evidence, they would be liable for a lawsuit for defamation of character, and rightfully so.

The glaring issue that a lot of social media users either don’t know or don’t care that these laws are applicable to individuals also, and not just media companies. Individuals can be sued for libel and defamation too.

You would be forgiven for thinking they’d think twice about openly accusing a person without evidence, risking a potential lawsuit for libel. Instead, the opposite happened.

Of course, due to the nature of the crime that Edwards was accused of, an argument could be made that it was in the public interest to know (which is most likely what The Sun’s defence will be for publishing the story in the first place), but it’s clear that a line was crossed.

Many Twitter users were more than happy to openly accuse various BBC presenters of being the guilty party.

It came across to many as if social media, as a whole, became so impatient for the BBC and police’s investigation, that it started to falsely accuse people to put pressure on the guilty party to come forward.

Due process and the presumption of innocence weren’t in their thinking process or considered. Not even the fear or threat of being sued for libel seemed to be enough of a deterrent for some.

There was a willingness to damage – possibly irreparably – the reputations of several presenters in the name of ‘justice’.

That is a terrifying and damning indication of the mindset of at least a section of modern Britain; a kind of bloodthirsty craving for a form of mob justice.

This begs the question – was it really about holding Edwards accountable?

Solicitor Joshua Rozenburg warns the public that the laws about libel and defamation apply to individuals as well as companies

What now?

Edwards is currently in hospital for mental health reasons and will remain there for the foreseeable future.

Several BBC presenters are considering their legal options after both individuals and media outlets implied or outright accused them of being involved in the scandal.

It’s possible that The Sun could be investigated after its revelation of the scandal could constitute an invasion of privacy.

Although the newspaper claims that it didn’t pay the victim’s mother for the story, and the fact that they didn’t name Edwards when they first released the story to the public, it’s yet to be seen if they have even seen hard evidence of the compromising messages between the victim and Edwards.

The BBC is also facing fresh allegations of inappropriate behaviour by Edwards towards junior members of staff.

Sunak agrees to public sector pay rises of at least 6% without raising budgets

Mike Omoniyi
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Sunak agrees to public sector pay rises of at least 6% without raising budgets

Millions of public sector workers, including teachers, police and junior doctors, are to be offered pay rises between 5%-7%, the government says.

Police and prison officers will receive a 7% pay rise, while teachers and junior doctors will get a 6.5% and 6% rise respectively. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he had accepted recommendations made by the pay review bodies “in full”.

He said the rises would not be funded by borrowing more or increasing taxes. He added that the offer was “final” and further industrial action would not change that decision, saying: “There will be no more talks on pay. We will not negotiate again on this year’s settlements and no amount of strikes will change our decision.”

Following the announcement, the education unions said they would now put the offer to their members with a recommendation to accept the pay award, and said the deal would allow the strikes to be called off. Mr Sunak said the pay awards in the education department would be fully funded, but did not set out details how it would be achieved.

Over the past year, rising prices have prompted public sector workers to ask for pay rises matching or exceeding the rate of inflation which currently stands at 8.7%.

Disputes over salary have led to a series of strikes hitting schools and hospitals.

What pay rises have been offered?

  • Police officers: 7% (England & Wales)
  • Consultants, dentists and GPs: 6% (England)
  • Junior doctors: 6% + £1,250 consolidated increase (England)
  • Prison officers: 7% and more for support grades (England & Wales)
  • Armed forces: 5% + £1,000 consolidated increase (UK)
  • Teachers: 6.5% (England)

In welcome news for No 10, the leaders of the National Education Union, Association of School and College Leaders, National Association of Head Teachers and NASUWT said they hoped to “resume normal relations with government”.

Earlier this week, Jeremy Hunt said delivering “sound money” was the government’s number one focus. In a Mansion House speech, the chancellor said: “That means taking responsible decisions on public finances, including public sector pay, because more borrowing is itself inflationary.

“It means recognising that bringing down inflation puts more money into people’s pockets than any tax cut. And it means recognising that there can be no sustainable growth without eliminating the inflation that deters investment and erodes consumer confidence.”

Sunak was similarly strict about not adding more to the national debt when he was asked about the decision on public sector pay earlier this week.

Speaking at the Nato summit in Lithuania on Wednesday, the prime minister said: “Everyone knows the economic context we are in and we need to make sure that government decisions, particularly when it comes to not borrowing more, are made responsibly so we don’t fuel inflation, make it worse or last for longer.”

Mortgage defaults jump at fastest rate since 2009

Sharon Adebola
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Mortgage defaults jump at fastest rate since 2009

Mortgage payments reach the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis for those on a two-year fixed deal 

Millions of households are under great financial pressure as the Bank of England increases interest rates in efforts to lower high inflation. 

Mortgage repayments have been affected as rates on two-year fixed deals rise to levels not seen since the financial crash.

The Bank of England (BOE) recently released a financial stability report stating “In the UK, more households are being affected by higher interest rates as fixed-rate mortgage deals expire. The proportion of households with high debt service ratios, after accounting for the higher cost of living, has increased and is expected to continue to do so through 2023. But it is projected to remain some way below the historic peak reached in 2007” 

The BOE projects rates to remain below rates reached in 2007 hoping to lower speculation around mortgage rates. 

The report also states millions of homeowners on new mortgage contracts in the forthcoming years will pay approximately £220 extra per month, which some label a drastic increase that is unaffordable. 

Source: Moneyfacts. Last update: 12 Jul 2023

“Which comes first the economy or the individual?”

Financial journalist Martin Lewis on Good Morning Britain argues mortgage repayments are bound to rise as increased interest rates are “one of the core ways to fight inflation”.

He states this is a “huge bill shock” to millions of homeowners affected as questioning what the government must prioritise, “the economy or the individual”.

Although many speculate that mortgage rates will come down, Lewis suggests there is no guarantee rates will drop back to normal. People may only say so “only and if” rates did come down. 

For future homeowners, concerns grow as they question if they can afford mortgages where renting seems to be a better option. 

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