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Why we shouldn’t have a Corona baby boom

Enter: Spanish Flu 1918

It arrived unexpectedly in fall 1918 and largely subsided by January 1919. According to Barker’s Foetal Origins hypothesis, certain chronic health conditions can be trace back to the course of foetal development. Using U.S. Census data, 25 million Americans contracted the influenza strain and survived, with some of the highest infection rates observed among women of childbearing age (one third of them). The brevity of the pandemic and the large difference in pregnant mortality rates across states meant adult outcomes of the foetuses could be compared between cohorts born within months of each other. Crucially, without omitted variable bias. The negative shock to the health endowment affected every socioeconomic outcome in the later 1960s 70s and 80s Censuses.

Toronto closures of public places Winter 1918 // Toronto City Hall Archives

Those in utero during the Pandemic suffered large reductions in educational attainment, with children of infected mothers some 15% less likely to graduate from high school. Male wages were 5-9% lower because of infection. Socioeconomic status as measured by the Duncan occupation index of 1961 saw Spanish flu increase likelihood of being poor at a rate 15% higher than other cohorts. Public entitlement spending was also greater, with those in utero during the end of 1918 having the highest average welfare payments of all birth groups from 1911 to 1925. Additionally, Men born in the first 3 quarters of 1919 had 20% higher disability rates at age 61 as result of foetal influenza exposure.

Wind the clocks forward: Covid 2020

For us in 2020, it is becoming increasingly transparent that when the pandemic ends, it won’t really be over. Damage spreads well beyond the lungs. A Chinese study of 34 recovered patients who had mild symptoms found many biological measures “failed to return to normal.”

Specifically, impaired liver function even after two tests for each candidate came back negative and the patients were cleared for discharge.

Deja Vu ? // Bemidji Daily Pioneer Archives

Similarly, cardiologists have found 12% heart failure rates in those who survived, even in those who had shown no signs of respiratory distress.

Dr Harlan Krumholtz, cardiologist for Yale University, asserts that “Covid-19 is not just a respiratory disorder. It can affect the heart, liver, kidneys, brain, endocrine and blood systems.”

Just as Spanish flu left generational legacies of poor health and social outcomes, perhaps Sars-Cov-2 will also have a long-term sequela (downstream effects).

Another question for health experts is whether the re-emergence and mutation of Covid-19, having lay dormant inside the body, could continue to do so for years, springing back later in a different form. After all, it didn’t stop Herpes, Chicken Pox, Hepatitis B slowly damaging the liver, or Ebola causing blindness or vision impairment in 40% of those affected. The original SARS infection saw one in three recovered patients have continuing lung impairment after 3 years, while another third of those with the MERS version having fibrosis – permanent scarring – of lung tissue.

The flu that killed 50 million // BBC Archives

While we are currently in the thick of it, we are managing the acute impact of Covid-19. This does, however, make it difficult to assess whether “lingering” side-effects of the infection were there previously, just undiagnosed health conditions that made those people vulnerable to begin with.

Until we know more, we should shape our health policy around the experts in epidemiology without succumbing to irrational fear mongering. Crucially, we should all avoid catching this disease because we don’t know what it might to us or as in the case of the pregnant mothers some 100 years ago to our future children in utero.

Enter the Coronials

With everyone hunkering down for months on end, no sports to watch, stuck binge watching TV series or working on hobbies soon become monotonous. Some have speculated another baby boom 9 months from now. Perhaps this wasn’t the greatest move not just as the world moves into recession and unemployment is soaring to record highs, but because of the legacy of 1918 and those children of the Spanish influenza.

We are at war, only this time not with the Axis powers or Socialism. The budget deficits we had to run in times of national crisis to preserve and uphold freedom were just courses of action when compared with the alternatives. But today, we shouldn’t race to reopen the economy but should take on more debt to stave off economic deprivation.

This may mean higher taxes and involve giving up more control of our personal liberties to our governments. Just two examples close to home on the continent saw the Polish Prime Minister seeking to ban abortion while everyone is on lockdown and, and Hungary’s leader Viktor Orban’s attempt to make himself President for life.

But for societies like England with a healthy dose of fairness and strong tradition of civil liberties, perhaps we should be thankful our leaders saw sense in not allowing our health systems to be overwhelmed and pursuing a perverse policy of “herd immunity”.

As Sir Francis Bacon’s solemn message echoes through history “the remedy is worse than the disease.” This may be used by those wishing to overturn lockdown restrictions and put the economy back to work or else we run the risk of bread lines and decades of depression once more.

But, the little-known ending to that phrase goes “…. yet no remedy is too bitter, when the disease ends in death.” Just as we finally paid back America in 21ST Century from the two World War loans, we will manage once again.

Prince Harry and Meghan are DONE with British Tabloids

Prince Harry And Meghan Markle Are Cutting Off Four Major UK Tabloids

Harry and Meghan said they and their communications team will no longer engage with the Mail, the Sun, the Mirror, and the Express.

The Duke and Duchess of Sussex (aka Prince Harry and Meghan Markle) are cutting off four major UK tabloids, saying in a letter sent Sunday night to the editors of the Mail, the Sun, the Express, and the Mirror that they will no longer “offer themselves up as currency for an economy of clickbait and distortion.”

“There will be no corroboration and zero engagement,” they said in the letter, which noted that the Sussexes’ communications teams in both the US and the UK would be implementing this policy.

Chris Jackson/Getty Images

As The Common Sense Network Reported months ago, The Duke and Duchess of Sussex announced they were to step back as “senior” royals and work to become financially independent. The Sussexes cited the intense — and unfair scrutiny as one of the driving reasons for their stepping down.

In the letter Sunday night, Harry and Meghan emphasized that their decision about cutting off the four tabloids was “not in any way a blanket policy for all media.”

“This policy is not about avoiding criticism. It’s not about shutting down public conversation or censoring accurate reporting. Media have every right to report on and indeed have an opinion on the Duke and Duchess of Sussex, good or bad. But it can’t be based on a lie.”

The letter in full

As The Duke and Duchess of Sussex now settle into the next chapter of their lives and no longer receive any publicly funded support, we are writing to set a new media relations policy, specifically as it pertains to your organisation.

Like you, The Duke and Duchess of Sussex believe that a free press is a cornerstone to any democracy— particularly in moments of crisis. At its best, this free press shines light on dark places, telling stories that would otherwise go untold, standing up for what’s right, challenging power, and holding those who abuse the system to account.

It has been said that journalism’s first obligation is to the truth. The Duke and Duchess of Sussex agree wholeheartedly.

It is gravely concerning that an influential slice of the media, over many years, has sought to insulate themselves from taking accountability for what they say or print—even when they know it to be distorted, false, or invasive beyond reason. When power is enjoyed without responsibility, the trust we all place in this much-needed industry is degraded.

There is a real human cost to this way of doing business and it affects every corner of society.

The Duke and Duchess of Sussex have watched people they know—as well as complete strangers—have their lives completely pulled apart for no good reason, other than the fact that salacious gossip boosts advertising revenue.

With that said, please note that the Duke and Duchess of Sussex will not be engaging with your outlet. There will be no corroboration and zero engagement. This is also a policy being instated for their communications team, in order to protect that team from the side of the industry that readers never see.

This policy is not about avoiding criticism. It’s not about shutting down public conversation or censoring accurate reporting. Media have every right to report on and indeed have an opinion on The Duke and Duchess of Sussex, good or bad. But it can’t be based on a lie.

They also want to be very clear: this is not in any way a blanket policy for all media.

The Duke and Duchess of Sussex are looking forward to working with journalists and media organisations all over the world, engaging with grassroots media, regional and local media, and young, up-and-coming journalists, to spotlight issues and causes that so desperately need acknowledging. And they look forward to doing whatever they can to help further opportunities for more diverse and underrepresented voices, who are needed now more than ever.

What they won’t do is offer themselves up as currency for an economy of click bait and distortion.

We are encouraged that this new approach will be heard and respected.

Coronavirus Conversations: Talking Productivity

Struggling to stay productive whilst on lockdown? Members of The Common Sense Network will now be on our Instagram account (@tcsnetwork) putting on live sessions every week, discussing productivity tips and hacks.

Britain today extended its coronavirus lockdown until early May, but there are rising hopes that the country is approaching the peak of the crisis and that a gradual easing of restrictions will begin next month.

The foreign secretary told the daily No 10 briefing that a review had concluded relaxing the measures now would risk harming public health and the economy.

“We still don’t have the infection rate down as far as we need to,” he said.

It comes as the UK recorded another 861 coronavirus deaths in hospital, taking the total to 13,729.

Strict limits on daily life – such as requiring people to stay at home, shutting many businesses and preventing gatherings of more than two people – were introduced on 23 March, as the government tried to limit the spread of coronavirus.

Coronavirus Conversations

We don’t know how long the lockdown will persist, however, we want to help you make the most of this time and so we are launching Coronavirus Conversations.

These are weekly sessions on our Instagram Live and later on our Youtube which will help you learn the productivity hacks and tips for your workflow. You can watch up on the first session now.

Talking Productivity

 

Loved and lost in care homes

Over 12,000 deaths have been recorded by the UK Government, as a result of COVID- 19. However, the daily statistics are only covering verified hospital deaths as of the date that these are released. Unfortunately, this has left a large number of deaths unaccounted for; those in high-risk environments such as care homes.

It is essential that the most vulnerable groups in society are cared for, and this includes those living in care homes. Care homes are environments which pose a high threat of contracting the virus, due to the fact that they host elderly residents, some of whom are likely to have underlying health issues and have weakened immune systems. Residents were also at heightened risk before the UK lockdown began, due to care homes having a stream of visitors such as various staff and visitors that constantly enter and leave the premises.

Furthermore, the essential workers within care homes, such as cooks and carers, have to maintain social distancing and risk their lives in order to keep caring for the residents. Social workers and healthcare staff who previously were paying frequent visits to care homes across the country are now limited to work remotely, meaning there is more pressure on the in-home carers to fulfil a multitude of responsibilities. Many of these key workers were working extensive hours for low pay before COVID- 19, due to social cuts made by the Government and enacted by local governments. As charity Age UK highlight, there has been a “£160 million cut in total public spending on older people’s social care” even though statistics show that our population is living longer and therefore ageing, resulting in a rapid demand for social care. The social care system has been stretched and strained for years, and there is no doubt that the pandemic will cause further damage.

Social care. Source: Flickr

As reported by The BBC, the Government have recently promised that all care home residents and staff with COVID- 19 symptoms will be tested as laboratory capacity increases. Reportedly, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said he was “determined” to ensure that those in need of tests have access to them. The BBC say that there have been outbreaks at more than 2,000 care homes.

This move by the Government comes after it was revealed that the daily statistics that are shared with the public have not been a representation of the full picture, sadly, missing out completely the deaths within the community and in care homes. As of 15th April 2020, the UK coronavirus verified deaths came to a total of 12,868.

The Guardian recently reported that two of the largest care home providers in the UK have reported the deaths of 521 residents. HC- One, which operates around 350 homes, told the Guardian that as of 8pm on Monday 13th April, there had been “311 deaths from confirmed or suspected COVID- 19.” They also reported outbreaks in two thirds of their homes. Another operator, MHA, reported 210 deaths across 131 homes, and outbreaks in 50% of its homes. In contrast, official figures released on Tuesday 14th April showed just 237 people died from Coronavirus in care homes in two weeks. You can read about the Office of National Statistics data on COVID- 19 here.

It may not have been the Government’s intention to under report because, there is the matter of COVID- 19 deaths having to be verified, and the NHS has become overwhelmed with cases. However, this is truly a matter of the amount of tests that have been available and perhaps is highlighting the stark ignorance of the initial “herd immunity” approach that the Government took. It is understood that we have never faced a pandemic like the one that we are currently experiencing in the modern world, but it could be argued that the Government’s initial response left room for vulnerable groups to be exposed to risk on a daily basis.

Furthermore, it is important to note that many residents will be experiencing loneliness, after effectively being cut off from having regular visitors – recent years have seen major campaigns against the loneliness of elderly people in the UK. It is vital that those in care homes are prioritised.

At the moment, we do not truly know how many care home residents and staff have been exposed to the virus and will continue to be at risk. However, it is hoped that the Government’s plan to test more will help those in the social care system to be recognised and looked after.

Is 5G really a threat?

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The recent spread of COVID-19 has led to an upsurge of pseudo-scientists, WhatsApp doctors and false information. Within this array of convoluted statistics and details, the general public has also witnessed the rise of various conspiracies. One of the theories that have emerged during this unprecedented time is the threat of 5G and the harmful health effects 5G towers around the UK will have on the general wellbeing of the public. Despite the widespread hype and consternation regarding this theory, it is still unclear what 5G is. By deconstructing the nature of the wireless communication service, we will gain a more genuine insight into the implications of setting up 5G towers across the country as well as its various benefits and drawbacks.

What is 5G and why is it important?

It has taken a decade to effectively research and develop wireless communication 5G technology. Many carriers have rolled out 5G services through mobile devices, however, a more conclusive rollout is pending. Essentially, 5G is the fifth generation of mobile broadband that has supplanted 3G and 4G in terms of latency (the time taken for a wireless device to complete an action that it has been instructed to perform), widespread capacity and supply. This implies that there will be greater global interconnectivity as online interactions will occur in real-time. The implementation of 5G was among one the key promises outlined in the Conservative election manifesto, as Boris Johnson pledged that “Gigabit broadband [would be] sprouting in every home.”

The promise of fast and efficient broadband has been a common assurance within many recent political campaigns in the UK. Theresa May guaranteed £600 million worth of funding to develop fibre-optic technology whilst David Cameron vowed to similarly create the fastest broadband network in Europe. Efficient access to contemporary online resources therefore absorbs a large proportion of the government’s budget. The emphasis on extending the scope of technology such as 5G stems from the constructive impact the internet has on the economy. Improved access to the web cultivates potential for inclusive growth, socio-economic development and productivity that could possibly contribute to the overall GDP of the country and connect remote populations to global markets. Therefore, the structural importance of optimising access to online resources is integral to strengthening the economic foundations of a nation and further developing novel areas of commerce. The various political pledges and promises are therefore better understood when reviewed within this context.

Recent debate regarding China’s role in building UK’s 5G network.

Nonetheless, the multiple conspiracies that have developed around 5G are not derived from concern regarding the detrimental economic impact it will have, rather the effect it will have on the welfare of citizens. Before further exploring some of the dangers of 5G, we need to consider how 5G actually operates and what this technology consists of.

How does it work?

By providing a general overview (void of any complicated scientific jargon) we can harness a more in-depth perspective on the scientific credibility of the conspiracies that have been widely circulated.

There are various types of 5G technology that help deliver the latency and speed that it claims to offers, these inlcude Millimeter Waves, Small Cell tower networks , Beamforming and Full Duplex. Millimeter Waves technology extends the purview of the radio-frequency spectrum (a part of the electromagnetic spectrum which consists of radio frequencies between 30Hz to 300 GHz) allowing more devices to connect and prevent over-crowding.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEx_d0SjvS0
A visual representation of the extension in the range of frequency within 5G technology and how it allows more devices to connect.

These sorts of waves cannot travel through objects but are absorbed by rain and plants. To mitigate this issue, Small Cell networks are in place. These are high power cell towers that broadcast signals across large distances. However as aforementioned, the high-frequency Millimeter Waves struggle to travel through obstacles, therefore lots of low powered stations/Small Cell network towers need to be abundantly distributed across specific areas of the country so as to prevent this interference and improve the receptivity of the signals.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEx_d0SjvS0
A relay of Small Cell towers transmitting signals around obstacles.

Beamforming refines and focuses the streams of data being emitted – preventing interference and allowing greater input and output of data. Furthermore, full duplexing allows data to be transmitted back and forth through the same frequency – contributing to the speed and capacity of the technology. the Small Cell towers, in particular, have been the central issue in Britain.

Advantages of 5G

Notwithstanding the anger directed towards these towers and the subsequent acts of arson and harassment following the online conspiracies regarding 5G, there are some distinct benefits of the technology.

The main feature of the technology that constitutes the greatest advantage is its latency – as mentioned earlier, latency essentially means reaction time or the time between a command and an outcome. It is 200 times faster than 4G which operates at around 200 ms, roughly corresponding to human reaction time. 5G works at a rate of 1ms, eclipsing the reaction rate of 4G technology by far. This means that 5G can send and receive information in real-time – enabling it to act as a substitute for real-time interaction. By doing so, 5G broaches a portal of endless possibilities and applications. Such possibilities include the creation of a network of self-driving cars that are able to communicate with traffic lights, air sensors and aerial drones all whilst avoiding accidents (within the span of a millisecond) as they know exactly where they are in real-time. This concept can be applied to autonomous trains, delivery trucks and planes.

Additionally, 5G can be used to perform surgeries in remote locations or similarly used in other circumstances where distance and timing are crucial to achieving a specific outcome. The technology can be used to encourage innovation and efficiency in various industries such as agriculture, retail and manufacturing as well as in the domestic sphere for gaming, research and general internet usage. It can, therefore, be seen that 5G is integral to achieving economic expediency and could potentially enable Britain to spearhead a technological overhaul within the commercial realm. Its potential benefits also explain its precedence on the political agenda – allowing us to engage with the reasons behind why world leaders are looking to incorporate it into their economic and domestic frameworks.

Disadvantages of 5G

In contrast to these somewhat futuristic uses, there are palpable health risks associated with 5G. The main concern regarding this technology is that the radiofrequency radiation (RFR) disrupts the make-up of DNA, causing oxidative damage, premature ageing and in the worst situations, cancer.

However, these theories have being countervailed by studies on RFR – the radiation is somewhat commonplace and isn’t innately dangerous. RFR is emitted from microwaves, X-rays, ultraviolet light, infared light and even the sun – it is released from any of the sources featured on the electromagnet spectrum.

Source: https://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/science/toolbox/emspectrum1.html
The Electromagnetic spectrum

In order to try and situate the danger, greater consideration needs to be given to the circumstances that could change the inherent nature of these allegedly harmless sources of radiation. The risks of 5G are contingent upon whether RFR becomes ionising or non-ionising which in turn depends on many more micro-reactions such as nuclear decay and the effects of exponential thermal pressure on molecules. ionising radiation is lethal whereas non-ionising radiation can be found within our own homes. Despite the fact that 5G doesn’t seem to pose an immediate threat, studies on the effects of the technology are not clear cut – although non-ionising radiation does not parallel ionising radiation in terms of detrimental health effects, there is a distinct possibility that it could still impact well-being.

There remains a sliver of doubt regarding 5G’s safety, accelerating the spread of conspiracies. In light of the current research, many could potentially construe these rumours as authentic or at least partially valid. Additionally, it can be argued that the government deserves some degree of criticism for giving greater priority to an economic venture as opposed to the public’s health – consolidating the notion that monetary benefits of such technology to offset health risks to the public. Whether 5G poses immense benefit or threat therefore hinges upon people’s perception of health and personal priorities.

This interlinks with the wider issue at hand regarding politicisation in the wake of a crisis. In the midst of the current dystopian climate, sodden with death and suffering, politicising extraneous issues such as the implementation of 5G towers can be considered futile and insensitive. However, such issues are ultimately dependant on people’s perception of a fulfilled life. Many will see the economic benefits that 5G offers as a way of expanding and streamlining their businesses – providing the financial stability they need to live a full and content life. Whereas others may argue that the financial advantages cannot indemnify the health risks that the public will be continually exposed to. Although 5G has considerable benefits and drawbacks, whether it should be implemented is fundamentally dependant on political inclination and personal priorities.

Will we all be vegan after the Coronavirus?

COVID 19 has taken the world by storm. Many theories claim it came about due to Chinese people eating bats, others say it was pangolins.

As of April 13th 2020, the world statistics for coronavirus are 1,867,129 cases, 115,278 deaths and 434,098 recovered. The question is that was this coronavirus preventable through lifestyle choices such as diet?

Figures from the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, state that in 2018, each person consumed 120kg of meat on average, making the US the highest meat consuming country in the world.

The demand for meat has drastically increased which has come at a dire cost for the human population. Diabetes, cancer, heart disease are some of the health conditions associated with overconsumption of meat.

MadCow disease, Salmonella, E. Coli & Bird Flu are some of the zoonotic diseases that have also plagued the planet. The latest being COVID 19, supposedly due to pangolins and bats being eaten.

Is COVID 19 from Bats or Pangolins?

It was first believed that the virus spread through individuals in China eating bats, but other research suggests it spread through pangolins. Another theory was it began in Wuhan seafood market. Either way, wet markets have long been a cause of respiratory issues.

Gabon bans eating of pangolin and bats amid pandemic - France 24
Picture from @worldwildlife.org
Pangolins are mammals, mistaken for reptiles, “the worlds most trafficked mammal” due to the folklore that they are good for medicinal purposes.

A pangolin is a mammal covered in scales that are often mistaken for a reptile. It is one of the most trafficked animals across Asia and Africa. More information on the pangolin can be found via this link @worldwildlife.org.

Due to the coronavirus, Gabon (Central Africa) on Friday banned the eating and sale of bats and pangolins, they are highly prized in traditional medicine in China. At the time of writing, Gabon has declared 21 COVID-19 infections.

According to the Mail on Sunday:

“The Wuhan laboratory at the centre of scrutiny over the pandemic has been carrying out research on bats from the cave which scientists believe is the original source of COVID 19.

The Mail on Sunday obtained documented showing the Wuhan Institute of Virology undertook coronavirus experiments on mammals captured more than 1,000 miles away in Yunnan – funded by a $3.7 million grant from the US government. The Sequencing of the COVID-19 genome has traced it to bats found in Yunnan’s caves.”

There is a common denominator, the eating and trading of meat, wild or factory farmed, which has once again spread to the wider human population. In a vegan world, some would argue this is something we would not have to worry about.

Veganism is the uncertain future

Veganism is the practice of abstaining from or avoiding eating meat or using animal products.

The vegan population has massively grown throughout the years, by 350% over the last ten years for good reason, people have become more conscious consumers. Food is no longer just “food”, it is one of the biggest drivers to climate change.

It's so ridiculous you're laughing": Furious Piers Morgan slams ...
Elisa Allen Director of People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA)

“Many devastating disease outbreaks come about because humans house animals in filthy, severely crowded farms and markets – breeding grounds for pathogens – in order to satisfy their meat habit.” Elisa Allen Director of People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA)

A list created by the government shows all the zoonotic diseases, to see the impact humans and their consumption of meat has had on the human population and on the planet. ranging from Avian Influenza, Salmonella and Lyme Disease.

Individuals in the UK point their finger at China and other countries, which has spiked the racism against the chinese population or anyone with asian phenotypes.

Twitter user @Lokendra Jangid tweeted “Chinese people are not humans they are evil who is eating bats ,cats, rats, craps, and all wilds life species. Trading human organ and much inhumane activity only exists in China.

I think what many people forget alongside @Lokendra Jangid, that other countries house diseases that have severely crippled the world. Such as Mexico where swine flu originated, hundreds of sick pigs died on a massive farm in 2009 just before swine flu spread to humans. It became known as swine flu because it’s similar to flu viruses that affect pigs.

(E. coli) originated from the United States and each year causes an estimated 73,000 cases of infection and 61 deaths.

There are disease-ridden animal factories across the globe not just in China, including us here on British home soil, such as foot and mouth disease in 2001. The highly infectious disease affected cattle, pigs, sheep and goats.

Yet the British public believe their eating habits to be superior.

Yulin Dog Meat festival

Petition the Chinese government to stop the Yulin dog eating ...

The Yulin “Lychee and Dog Meat” festival is an annual 10-day event running from 21st June to 30th June where over 10,00 dogs are eaten, and cats also. Taking place in Yulin, a city in the Guangxi province of China.

Dog eating is traditional in China, and according to folklore eating the meat during the summer months brings luck and good health. Some also believe dog meat can ward off diseases and heighten men’s sexual performance.

How dogs became man's best friend: Scientists pinpoint DNA that ...
Man’s best friend the dog, that holds immense cultural and emotional value in Western culture.

In the Western world where dogs are man’s best friend, this is seen as abhorrent, gross and horrible. Whereas when you think of it, dogs in the UK have a cultural and emotional value that in China they render insignificant.

Figures as recent as 18th March 2020 published by the Office for National Statistics revealed that spending on pets and related products reached an annual value of 4.94 million British pounds in 2018. A increase from 3 million British pounds since 2009. They do say put your money where your mouth is.

Antibiotic Resistant Diseases

To ensure high welfare standards in farming, the animals such as cows, chicken and pig are injected with antibiotics. However, antibiotics have become more powerful over time as viruses and diseases have become resistant to the antibiotics.

In 2019 an article by the independent uncovered that antibiotics were being used in chicken farms,

Read this and you may never eat chicken again | Food | The Guardian

BBC One’s Countryfile reported in 2019 that 281 tonnes of antibiotics known as ionophores were sold in the UK in 2017. Ionophores are used to prevent the intestinal disease coccidiosis which affects chickens when they ingest chicken droppings.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) campaigners argue ionophores pose a risk to human health and the environment.

Salmonella and Campylobacter, two of the many bacteria transmitted commonly through food, cause an estimated 660,900 antibiotic-resistant infections in the United States each year.”

If chickens perhaps were not kept in such horrid conditions, or even further not kept in cages, the human population would not have to worry about drug-resistant bacteria. To keep animals in such environments they must be pumped with antibiotics to reduce deaths of the livestock. A loss in livestock is a loss in profit which in turn is chicken that does no end up on your plate.

It’s an uncertain future

This is our future, the corona is the present, but for those who are conscious of the future is an illness away. Drug-resistant bacteria are a very real threat, and even the most immediate advancements in science may not be prepared as COVID 19 has unearthed.

Arguing on the basis of principle, meat is meat, regardless of its emotional, cultural or mental value. China does not hold the monopoly on cultural practices we do not agree with, neither are we more morally superior because we do not practice eating dogs and they do. In France, they eat snails otherwise known as “Escargot”, which is a delicacy there, but foreign in the UK.

The vegan diet is not perfect by any means but it will significantly reduce your carbon footprint. The vegan message has many facets one being to save the environment, prevent zoonotic and lifestyle-related diseases or the very argument that animals are sentient beings. In an ideal world being vegan could prevent a large majority of diseases to prevent that have occurred, COVID 19 reminds us of that. Wherever we are in the world a diet that reduces animals consumption can help us all.

For now admittedly we must focus on Coronavirus, but it came about due to one thing animals and eating them. the future may seem uncertain, but it is certain zoonotic diseases are here to stay.

In the meantime Stay Home Save Lives.

Does the UK need martial law against lockdown defiers?

The UK has been put on lockdown since 23rd March, with today being the 19th day. The lockdown instructions have been to stay indoors. With the exception of the following four reasons.

  1. Shopping for basic necessities such as food and medicine. Shopping trips should be as infrequent as possible
  2. One form of exercise a day. This should be done alone or only with people you live with
  3. Any medical need, or to provide care or to help a vulnerable person.
  4. Travelling to and from work, but only where work absolutely cannot be done from home

On Sunday 5th April, 2020 Scotland’s chief medical officer Dr Catherine Calderwood resigned from her role after being caught breaking the lockdown rules to visit her holiday home.

Dr Catherine Calderwood in a public statement said: “I am deeply sorry for my actions and the mistakes I have made.”

Scotland's chief medical officer Catherine Calderwood resigns ...
Scotlands chief medical officer Dr Catherine Calderwood resigns after being caught ravelling to her second home.

Westminster and Scottish government warned people not to travel to second homes during the lockdown.

Dr Calderwood was warned by the police for breaking the lockdown rules after the Scottish Sun published photographs taken on Saturday of her and her family visiting Earlsferry in Fife. It was an hour’s drive from Edinburgh, where her family home is situated.

 Calderwood has been appearing in televised announcements about the pandemic
Dr Calderwood has appeared on television telling the public to “only go out when absolutely necessary”

With senior officials not taking the lockdown seriously, how can we expect the general public to?

Just as the general public are being issued with fines for not adhering to police, Dr Calderwood’s actions require a statement, her resigning from her job is a poor punishment. Her actions as an elected representative in parliament is one that holds incredibly currency.

As Scotland’s Chief Medical Officer she advises the government on health issues and somehow she would jeopardise her own health and the health of others. She is not exempt or above the law in such a time.

Martial law may have to be implemented to reign home the severity of what is happening in the world.

President Duterte, “Shoot them dead”

Rodrigo Duterte rejects foreign aid over criticism of his 'war on ...
Rodrigo Duterte, President of the Phillippines

On Thursday 2nd April, President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte gave the army and the police the permission to shoot and kill Coronavirus lockdown defiers.

In a press statement, he said “I will not hesitate. My orders are to the police and military, as well as village officials, if there is any trouble, or occasions where there’s violence and your lives are in danger, shoot them dead,” he said in a mix of Tagalog (Filipino native language) and English in the televised address.

“Do not intimidate the government. Do not challenge the government. You will lose.”

The Philippines currently has 3,246 COVID-19 cases, including 152 deaths and 64 recoveries.

In solidarity to fight the COVID 19, the president has donated 1-month salary to fund anti-COVID-19 efforts.

Under the strict rules under Duterte, it was confirmed that a 63-year-old man was shot dead in the Philippines. He was threatening village officials and police with a scythe at a coronavirus checkpoint, police said on Saturday. 

The is the first reported case of a police shooting a civilian for refusing to follow restrictions to stop the spread of the infamous coronavirus.

While Boris Johnson is locked down in quarantine, a repulsive fact ...
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson

President Duterte can be viewed as extreme whilst also violating human rights. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson who was admitted to hospital earlier this week gave the British Public a warning at the beginning of the COVID 19 pandemic. This is a testament to the freedoms we have in the Western world. In spite of this lockdown, some corners of the British public remain defiant.

Defiantly sunbathing in midst of COVID 19

On April 4th, Lambeth Council took to Twitter to inform the public that the park will be closed, as individuals were still congregating to sunbathe.

Lambeth council tweeted “Despite clear advice, over 3000 people spent today in Brockwell Park, many of them sunbathing or in large groups. This is unacceptable. Unfortunately, the actions of a minority now means that, following police advice, Brockwell Park will be closed tomorrow. #StayHome” Lambeth council tweeted”.

Elsewhere, the Borough of Camden, Primrose Hill park had invidiuals defying the Covid 19 rules.

Camden Town and Primrose Hill police, discovered over 100+ people with full picnics, blankets sunbathing and catching up with their friends.

A £30 fine is clearly not enough when it comes to tackling the COVID 19, as it appears people remain absolute in defying the strict guidelines and instructions given.

Twitter user @DIGADA1 tweeted: “Expect a surge in mental health and lack of fitness problems adding extra burden to the NHS.
Well done. (If people socially distance, as they should, they are not endangering themselves or others).”

They are right, due to the lockdown mental health issues such as anxiety will go through the roof. For example, the lack of Vitamin D for those who are unable to have backyard spaces. However, the general public need to listen, otherwise this virus could become worse.

What would a martial governing look like?

By definition (Dictionary.com): Martial law is when a state is put under the control of the military, usually temporarily and as a result of an emergency or crisis that has broken down the usual civil authority and order.

COVID-19: All of Italy to be placed under lockdown, says PM - CNA
Italy is under martial law, the highest death toll in Europe and the army have been called in.

Italy as an example in March called the military in after they had 627 people die in 24 hours. Italy has recorded 128,948 cases of COVID19 AND 15,887 deaths, according to John Hopkins University. Italy has the highest death toll in Europe.

Will the UK enact martial law in the fight against Covid?

According to the Department of Health, 6,483 patients have died in hospital after testing positive for coronavirus in the UK.

With an insufficient amount of tests available to the NHS, martial law could become a roadblock in this corona traffic. Everyone in the UK should be tested, whether it is done door to door, or at hospitals. The choice may have to be removed for people to comprehend the severity of this worldwide pandemic, with the chief medical officer abandoning the rules and the general public also following in the same footsteps.

Army is no longer able to defend UK properly, say 1 in 2 | The ...

Duterte’s call for the police and army to shoot those who violate the lockdown rule was extreme, but was it necessary to protect the interests of everyone? In England, we predicate ourselves in the notion of human rights. However, when does a minority of people performing actions endangering the majority become unacceptable? I believe they should have their human rights removed to protect the health of others around them.

In no way am I suggesting to shoot people dead for defying the COVID 19 lockdown, but stronger sanctions must and need to be put into place. A prison sentence is a deterrent. Another practical and very possible solution at this time could be those individuals who flout the law should be made to work in the NHS to witness the visible effects their actions can have.

Remember to stay home, and save lives.

Lessons from the 70s: Stagflation

The supply shock is allowing companies like Amazon’s sellers to engage in price gouging. This comes as the largest stimulus ever was passed by Congress. When Covid-19 ends, we will have lots of excess money in the system without as many products as before the pandemic. All those companies that closed up shop for good, or don’t have working capital to ramp up operations will leave more money chasing fewer goods. Add in very cheap business and consumer loans from a well capitalised banking system from numerous sets of Quantitative Easing (QE) and now 0% central bank rates, we are in for trouble.

Way back when

The Federal Reserve has created so much money that prices are going up. It didn’t happen during previous money printing rounds because financial institutions weren’t well capitalised. We didn’t have a broad supply side shock like the Covid-19 crisis and there isn’t the benefit of downward pressure on prices that Chinese cheap labour afforded us.

Peter Schiff expects a wave of inflation will overwhelm America and she will default on her National Debt // Alamy

Financial crises have been followed by inflation trajectories tied to monetary policy and money creation by the banking sector during those crises, but supply side interactions with the evolution of broad money aggregates in response to those crises explain why Argentina’s financial crisis in the early 2000s was followed by increasing inflation. Meanwhile Japan lived through a ‘lost decade’ of deflation 1991 to 2001 despite QE.

Stagflation

What we end up with is stagflation. This is when inflation and unemployment are high, but economic growth is low. This happens when central banks expand the money supply at the same time as supply is constrained.

If the government were serious about tackling the upcoming problems that they created, they need to raise interest rates, thus making money less accessible. People will need to take the pain, but at least their purchasing power would go further. Right now, our governments are wiping out the purchasing power of lifelong savers.

Peter Schiff tweeted this week on money supply and FED balance sheet:

“The Fed’s balance sheet exploded by $557.3 billion in the last week to $5.812 trillion. More shocking, money supply surged by $436.1 billion. In the past two weeks, the Fed’s balance sheet is up by $1,143.4 trillion, fourteen months of QE3, and money supply is up $606.2 billion.”

Perfect Storm

A health crisis preventing people working, making them ill and disrupting supply chains is a large shock to productivity, similar to an oil price shock or a natural disaster. The limited supply of labour and production will mean more money is chasing fewer goods, leading to inflationary pressures. The cancellation of the tourism industry globally, which accounted for 10% of World GDP before the crisis, alongside closing businesses, restaurants, shopping centers, cinemas and health clubs has created a large negative demand shock.

The combination of both shocks will rapidly increase the unemployment rate and trigger a large economic recession. However, the decline of both demand and supply means that we should not expect to see the falling prices and deflation that occurred during the Great Recession and Great Depression.

In the short run, emergency lending programs will add the liquidity needed to keep credit markets functioning, and the proposed tax rebates will help individuals and businesses weather the storm. While both of these policies will keep demand from collapsing. Consumers propped up by lending programs, return to spend and borrowing at historically low rates.

Prolonged closure of business and supply chains will create further shortages throughout the wider economy, not just nitrile gloves, disinfectants and face masks. Lower investment restricts future potential output. The money supply growing faster than growth in real output means more money chasing fewer goods. Companies like Amazon, in responding to the increase in monetary demand, put up prices to better reflect the scarcity allowing the price mechanism to effectively clear the backlog. This comes at a cost of inflation, which reduces purchasing power of consumers and harms savers who don’t own assets growing faster than the prevailing rate of overall price increases.

Stagflation // WallStreetMojo

Trouble is, lowering interest rates in response to such a health-related event will not put infected individuals back to work. Firms, still anchored to the old level of wages, won’t realise the market has moved. As a result, they leave vacant job positions unfilled, holding out for a better candidate and not realising that the rules have changed, and you will have to pay up to get someone good.

Michael Woodford’s view in his 2003 ‘Inflation Targeting and Optimal Monetary Policy’ paper is that central banks can just raise rates when inflation arrives.

Sadly, it isn’t that easy in practice, as we painfully found out in the 1970s. The lag between excess monetary growth (the increase in money supply over potential output, adjusting for the influence of interest rates on the demand for money) and inflation is substantial. Across all economies its around 40 months, and for developed economies its even longer.

Concerns about inflation seem utterly misguided – ‘since it hasn’t happened yet, it won’t happen’. These opinions get caught up in the noise of ‘these shortages are as temporary as the supply chain bottlenecks and so too are the price increases’.

As the worst point of the crisis passes (while the labour market lags economic activity), the market clearing level of wages (‘shadow wages’) remains below the current actual level but slowly creeps up over time. 

Once shadow wages surpass the current actual level, things can take a dramatic shift, and the rate of increase that was once hidden (not observable) starts to manifest in actual observed wages.

No more cheap Chinese labour to ease supply shocks, keeping prices down and product on shelves // Shutterstock

Only this time we don’t have competitively, lower priced Chinese unit labour costs. But we do have a progressively aging demographic.

When the ice cube starts to melt, it starts slowly, but when you begin to notice it, suddenly it ‘appears’ to speed up. The same is true with wage price increases and wider inflation. We all get blindsided because we were so distracted from what really matters while caught up in the daily noise.

All this comes with a political environment with a President who called for zero interest rates in a fully employed economy amid a weary public audience tentatively emerging from recession. The FED has been trying to rediscover inflation since 2008, Covid-19 may prove the answer, albeit an overdose.

Support in uncertainty: you’re not alone

Coronavirus, also known as COVID- 19, has thrown the world into uncharted territory.  The situation is developing rapidly, especially here in the UK – the current lock down has left Britons separated from their loved ones, non-essential businesses have closed, and many have lost their jobs, despite the government’s furlough scheme.  In the nation’s time of need, here are the key services and helplines running for when you may need that little bit of support.

Housing worries

There have been changes in law with regards to mortgages and renting. The Coronavirus Act passed on Wednesday 25th March 2020 and came into effect on the 26th March. As ARLA Propertymark – UK professional and regulatory body for letting agents – states: “Under the Coronavirus Act, landlords will not be able to start proceedings to evict tenants for at least a three-month period. This includes possession of tenancies in the Rent Act 1977, the Housing Act 1985, the Housing Act 1996 and the Housing Act 1988. When using either Section 8 or Section 21 notices to quit, landlords must give at least three months’ notice before they can apply to the court for possession. This applies regardless of which ground is used for Section 8.”

The change of law only applies to notices served on or after 26th March, but it does mean that if you are a tenant and fall under this category, you cannot be evicted  because the court service has suspended all ongoing housing possession action for 90 days – this could be extended. The changes in law have come into effect until 30th September 2020, and it gives you the right as tenant to stay in your home!

Information on where to find more information from the housing charity, Shelter; Twitter

However, you may still be facing problems. Shelter, a charity that helps people struggling with bad housing and homelessness, has continued to extend their arm of support to the public; you may have seen their recent adverts asking for donations in light of them receiving a huge increase in calls, due to the current pandemic. The charity is able to help you, and there are also a number of other points of help available. Furthermore, you can also donate if you would like to support a housing charity during this period of time.

More information from housing charity, Shelter ; Twitter

Health

The UK Government have ordered that Britons only leave their home for essential reasons – to buy vital groceries, for one hour of daily exercise, for health reasons or work as an essential worker.

If you have symptoms of Coronavirus and need advice, the NHS advises that you use their 111 service – this will take you through an online process where you input your postcode and other details. The NHS have requested that you only call 111 if you are unable to get help online. There is also a new status checker on the NHS website – this is to be used if you have had symptoms and want to share this information with the NHS, in order to support their fight against the virus.

Guidance from Matt Hancock on using the status checker; Twitter

You can also use the 111 online service for urgent medical help in general, or urgent dental treatment if you cannot contact your dentist or do not have one.

For life-threatening emergencies, call 999 for an ambulance, but avoid going straight to A&E because you will put yourself at risk of catching the virus. Repeat prescriptions can also be requested online.

On the other hand, charities such as Mind and Rethink Mental Illness offer support for anyone struggling with mental health issues during this difficult time.

Domestic Abuse and Violence

As reported by the BBC, the National Domestic Abuse helpline has seen a 25% increase in calls and online requests for help since the start of the Government lockdown, according to the charity Refuge.

Refuge is charity for women and children against domestic violence, and in a recent statement online, they said: “‘Refuge wants to reassure those experiencing abuse that they are not alone. Our services remain open and we have contingency plans in place for all of our services, including refuges, community-based services and the National Domestic Abuse Helpline, run by Refuge.”

Refuge have a Freephone Helpline that operates 24-hourly, seven days a week, with “confidential, non-judgemental” support, given by trained female advisers. There is also an online contact form and women can request a safe time to be called.

Person holding hands. Source: Pxfuel

The National Domestic Abuse Helpline can be called on 0808 2000 247 or you can contact the Helpline via Refuge’s contact form at www.nationaldahelpline.org.uk.  There are also contacts, pointed out by Shelter, such as: Women’s Aid, National Domestic Violence Helpline, Men’s Advice Line, National LGBT Domestic Abuse, Karma Nirvana and Rights of Women.

Food Banks

It can be difficult for the most vulnerable members of our society to keep their cupboards and fridges well-stocked during this pandemic. It may be even harder if you have had financial problems before this pandemic – you may find yourself in an emergency situation.

Tinned tomatoes. Source: Flickr

The Trussel Trust is an NGO that works towards ending hunger in the UK, and they have a network of food banks across the country. If you are in need, you can find out where your nearest food bank is by clicking the link.

Local food banks work with referral agencies and issue food vouchers for those who need emergency food supplies. A parcel contains a minimum of three days’ of nutritious tinned and dried food, donated by the local community. You can also contact the Trussel Trust using an online form, or you can be a volunteer and donate towards the charity’s efforts.

You are not alone

All of the charities mentioned above have services that you can utilise when in need, as well as opportunities available for you to donate or help out if you can. No one should feel ashamed for needing a bit of extra support and there is always someone willing to listen; be it a stranger or a friend. Even in self-isolation, you are not alone. If you need more guidance or even just someone to talk to, feel free to email us at hello@tcsnetwork.co.uk

Will Starmer Resurrect Labour?

Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, has won a resounding victory in the Labour leadership contest. He received 56.2% of the first-preference votes, beating Rebecca Long-Bailey (on 27.6%) and Lisa Nandy (on 16.2%). Starmer has agreed to meet Boris Johnson next week to discuss the government’s response to the coronavirus crisis. Just two days ago Johnson said in an open letter to opposition party leaders that all parties “have a duty to work together at this moment of national emergency.”

There is no doubt that the Labour leadership debates and overall process were overtaken by the Coronavirus epidemic and rightly so. When combined with Starmer’s relatively low profile before being elected, despite his thumping victory, many still won’t know who he is or his core values. He also still has a lot to shake off the perception that the Labour Party is not fit for governance after years of posturing by Corbyn. All these challenges mean his feelings of victory are bound to be short-lived because of the amount of work there is to do. Despite the mountain of challenges he faces, there are early signs of progress, although the bar remains low.

Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer MP on visit to Manchester and Oldham. (SOURCE: The Labour Party)

When Corbyn won the Labour Leadership in September 2015, his acceptance speech was full of heady optimism. He spoke of political revolution but many were confused about how he would get there, especially since he received the fewest parliamentary nominations. Many who nominated him said they had done so not to support his candidacy, but to widen the debate by including a socialist voice. What has since transpired is that his political revelation was a metaphoric one. He wanted to win the argument and not political power.

This was the first test Sir Kier faced: would he use his speech to tow a similar line or would he reset the party and re-cast a new vision for Labour? Would he be a leader of rhetoric and empty arguments or would he start preparing Labour for government and to make the party the election-winning machine it once was? One word that can be used to sum up Starmer following his speech is pragmatism.

Words we needed to hear

In his victory speech, Starmer said that working constructively with the government would not mean avoiding being critical when that was deserved. He said: 

Under my leadership, we will engage constructively with the government, not opposition for opposition’s sake. Not scoring party political points or making impossible demands. But with the courage to support where that’s the right thing to do.

But we will test the arguments that are put forward. We will shine a torch on critical issues and where we see mistakes or faltering government or things not happening as quickly as they should we’ll challenge that and call that out.

He also made it clear that there must be no return to “business as usual” after the coronavirus crisis is over:

When we do get through this we cannot go back to business as usual. This virus has exposed the fragility of our society. It’s lifted a curtain. Too many will have given too much. Some of us will have lost too much. We know in our hearts, things are going to have to change.

We can see so clearly now who the key workers really are. When we get through this it’ll be because of our NHS staff, our care workers, our ambulance drivers, our emergency services, our cleaners, our porters.

It will be because of the hard work and bravery of every key worker as they took on this virus and kept our country going.

For too long they’ve been taken for granted and poorly paid. They were last and now they should be first. In their courage and their sacrifice and their bravery, we can see a better future. This crisis has brought out the resilience and human spirit in all of us.

In a move many wished came earlier from a Labour leader, he issued a fresh apology for antisemitism in the Labour party and promised to “tear out this poison”. He said:

Antisemitism has been a stain on our party. I have seen the grief that it’s brought to so many Jewish communities. On behalf of the Labour party, I am sorry. And I will tear out this poison by its roots and judge success by the return of Jewish members and those who felt that they could no longer support us.

This was probably the section of his speech that was most endearing and showed his pragmatism. Rather than running from what has been an achilles heel for the Party thus far, he addresses it head-on and shows bravery that seemed lost during Corbyn’s premiership. 

Not just words, we need action

These were promising early signs that finally there seems to be a leader that understands the impact of antisemitism in the party and is driven to tackle it.

However, the British public is all too familiar with silver-tongued Labour politicians who say all the right things, make promises but fail to deliver. Starmer’s first test was to codify a new shadow cabinet that confirmed that his departure from Corbyn was not only rhetorical but practical. He seemed to have cleared this bar too, albeit, another relatively low one.

OUT: (L-R) Barry Gardiner (Shadow International Trade Secretary), Dianne Abbott (Shadow Home Secretary), John McDonnell (Shadow Chancellor) and Jon Trickett (Shadow Cabinet Office Minister) have all lost their Shadow Cabinet roles (SOURCE: Mirror)

Sir Keir said he wanted all factions of the party to serve in his shadow cabinet and stressed that he wanted to bring an end to whether people were Blairites or Corbynistas. Following this, Diane Abbott lost her post as Shadow Home Secretary and Mr Corbyn’s closest ally, John McDonnell, was replaced as Shadow Chancellor by Anneliese Dodds. Rachel Reeves was appointed as the Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Jonathan Ashworth stays as Shadow Health Secretary. Ms Dodds also become the first female Shadow Chancellor.

In a move that revealed Starmer’s early instinct and his grip of the party, those most associated with the Corbyn project are gone. McDonnell’s departure was already secured. Today we learnt Ian Lavery and Jon Trickett are trundling up to the backbenches too.

IN: (L-R) Nick Thomas-Symonds (Shadow Home Secretary), Lisa Nandy (Shadow Foreign Secretary), Anneliese Dodds (Shadow Chancellor) and Rachel Reeves (Shadow Cabinet Office Minister) have all been given top roles in Starmer’s new Cabinet (SOURCE: Mirror)

Labour has always been a broad church, a home for the politically disenfranchised and much earlier on, a home for dissidents and campaigners. That you could have Kier Hardie, Arthur Henderson, Tony Blair and Corbyn in the same party was a testament to the range the Labour Party has always had. This was a point lost during Corbyn’s premiership.

The most successful Labour leader was ideologically capacious allowing different fractions to serve and asset themselves. This historically has always been when Labour did well. If Starmer can enforce this broad view and rescue the party from those on the hard left with an ideological fetish, there may just be life in this party still.

Is the market rout over?

”When the Elephants are dancing, stay off the dance floor…”

Old Pool Shark Proverb

After a ten-year bull run, I’m sure the selling is over after a few weeks. Jack be nimble, Jack be quick and jump back in on those 30% discounts, right?

Trouble is, we never left the bubble because the bubble never cleared. The intervention to prevent deflationary spiral in 2008 prolonged the day of reckoning. Here we go again with the bail outs of failing companies, and unlimited Quantitative Easing, but this time we’re entering currency collapse territory.

Business as usual

It makes perfect sense for fund managers, after a 1 month fiasco, to rebalance their portfolios back to what used to work. Stocks dipped proportionally to other asset classes, so sell down other assets to reallocate. We get drops anywhere up to 20% every year throughout the history of the markets. Large players step back in to buy the dip. Last Tuesday, stocks posted the biggest dead-cat bounce and short squeeze since 1933. As March came to an end along with the first quarter of 2020, some $850 billion in mandated stock buying took place.

The 2008-09 V-Shaped Recovery // market business news

JP Morgan estimates put balanced or mutual funds at 60:40 ratios equities to bonds. Globally, they account for $4.5 trillion and $1.5 trillion in USA. To rebalance to a 60% equity proportion would take $300 billion. Simultaneously, the $7.5 trillion of American defined benefit plans would need $400 billion to fully rebalance to restore pre-coronavirus equity allocations. On top of this, we have sovereign pension funds like Norges bank and Japanese GPIF. Pre crash these had $1.1 Trn and $1.5 Trn respectively. To revert to their target equity allocations of 70% and 50% they need to each purchase $150 billion in equities. The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund announced it had lost $124 billion in the crash and its outgoing Chief Executive Yngve Slyngstad said it would raise its stock market investments back to 70% from 65.3%. While declining to say by when the fund would return to 70% equities or whether any stock purchases had yet taken place during the crash, judging by the rebound, price action shows this already happened.

Recovery trajectories // Howard Wright 2009

Throw in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act 2020) with the Federal Reserve stepping in as a ‘forced’ buyer coming in at the cash-market open each day last week resulting in an overly pronounced V-Shaped recovery. Forced buyers are funds that have to balance their books to meet by-laws or covenants, i.e. required to own specific asset classes (like stocks) at a specific percentage. In this case, it happens to be the government to prop up the economy.

Where the stimulus care package is going // howmuch.net

Before manipulated markets, bear markets ended in panic. I don’t think we have seen it yet. How many people are going to let their retirement continue to evaporate if they haven’t already?

Unemployment could soon be 25-30% in America, with most businesses forcibly closed. The past nine years have been the eye of the storm. We are now entering the other side and it is going to get brutal before the clouds finally clear – which they won’t because they won’t let deflation take place until the system is already dead.

Sovereign wealth funds of the world // TRD

Surviving this downturn was about going long short, short long. The bounce should be anticipated, but where it goes from there really depends on consumers spending, businesses investing and replenishing supply chains. It doesn’t come from governments just injecting money into the economy, many of which hasn’t made it through to their taxpayers who will later foot the bill. My contention is that markets cannot stay buoyant once the quarterly results start coming in unless this oil glut between the Saudis and Russians is lifted along with the trade war between China and USA on top of Covid-19 disappearing in the rear view mirror allowing the economy to resume “business as usual” toward the second half of the year.

Foolhardy investors have doubled down on the knife grabbing the “discounts”. Fund managers asleep at the wheel just applied the same macro-formula to every market scenario focusing on “time in the market”. Covid-19 may not be the underlying factor, but it makes a convenient scapegoat to pop the ‘Everything Bubble’. It may not be long before we hear the rallying cries of impoverished social unrest: “Death to the Money Changers”.

3.3 million weekly unemployed claimants filed last week // Tulsa World

3.3 million weekly unemployed claimants in America saw the Dow Jones +1000 points. 20 million more should get us back to those all time highs and Dow 30,000.

Bull Trap’s always follow initial crashes. This one brought the S&P back to 2,680 and FTSE to 5,800 around the 31.2 Fibonacci. Then we head down to S&P 1,240.

All this false propping up of Pensions, 401k’s, sovereign wealth funds rebalancing will not only be gone by mid-April but will show even deeper losses.

Index funds with their ‘automatic rebalancing’ have been “buying the dip”, potentially exacerbating short and long term losses // U.S. Global Investors

The hard-working average Joe or Jane will be inadvertently buying stocks through this “mandated rebalancing” that he or she has no clue is happening. Boeing shares bottomed at 90$ before rebounding to 180$ a share on the back of this rebalancing.

VIX stands near 60, SPY volume has been anaemic this last week. Once we enter April, the fund rebalancing and the accompanying FOMO (fear of missing out) driving this market higher on no real volume indicate a further drop to new lows. April will see volume pick up, volatility reach the highs again and more sell offs, bankruptcies. The 8 weeks business support grants, loans and waivers simply won’t make it to most businesses.

Why we're all socialists in a crisis

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“Genuine equality means not treating everyone the same, but attending equally to everyone’s different needs.”

Why Marx was right, Terry Eagleton. (p. 104)

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ll be aware of the global events that have been unravelling the past few months. Every day our reality is evolving into a surreal disaster movie, poorly directed by none other than Boris Johnson. The only exception between our current reality, and a real disaster movie? We can’t leave the cinema (or our homes).

Aside from the awful tragedies and global challenges that accompany the Covid-19 pandemic, there is also an opportunity to understand true human nature in survival mode. For some, this manifests as swinging at 80 year-old Doreen in your local Tesco, all in the quest of single-ply toilet paper. For others, this looks like a renewed connection and gratitude for your body and self, as well as your loved ones. Politically, Covid-19 has dramatically altered what we deem as effective governance. Universal income, free childcare and collectivist socialisation can no longer be deemed a privilege, but essential elements of modern living. As a nation, we are realising that in times of crisis and turbulence, individualism is far from the answer.

WILLIAM WEST/AFP via Getty Images

Wealth distribution

According to a 2017 NatCen report, two-thirds of Britons believe the government must take action to minimise the gap between the rich and poor. Yet despite this, the richest 10% own almost half of British wealth, whilst the bottom 50% own less than 10%. The irony of wealth inequality at this scale is that it becomes an entirely self-reinforcing system: as the rich get richer, the opportunity of redistribution becomes less likely. It appears that a global pandemic is going to be the perfect opportunity to reevaluate the systems we have in place.

As you may have noticed, a number of familiar faces have opened up their wallets to provide financial help during this pandemic. Celebrities have been donating (quite literally) millions to the charities and organisations, fighting on the frontline. Actor James McAvoy recently donated £275,000 to the Masks For NHS Heroes campaign to provide protective equipment for staff. I truly commend each and every celebrity who has contributed to the cause. Though equally, this celebrity intervention has exposed some alarming realities.

Firstly, it is the UK government’s responsibility to provide essential personal protective equipment to front-line workers. Boris Johnson’s inability to organise his administration and provide the equipment which protects the lives of NHS workers is atrocious to say the least. Whilst he’s comfortable cooped up in Downing Street, actors such as McAvoy have taken the responsibility upon themselves.

Subsequently, this sudden celebrity generosity has exposed the extent of disposable income available to them. We don’t truly consider how bizarre an outright sum donation of $1 million+ actually is. This isn’t money raised or collected somehow, this is money waiting to be spent towards a brand new Beverly Hills pad, or the latest LV collection. When you consider that there are children starving across the globe, families unable to access basic healthcare and homeless people freezing to death during Winter, that disposable $1m becomes more than just a intangible figure.

Reuters

Homelessness: The overnight solution

“The true measure of any society can be found in how it treats its most vulnerable members.”

Mahatma Ghandi

An estimated 320,000 people are homeless in the UK, according to research by Shelter. A reality that many are likely aware of, particularly so if you live in a city. For years, little has been done by the Government to truly tackle these statistics. Until now.

Last week, the Government wrote to local authorities asking them to house all rough sleepers in hostels or night shelters, by the weekend. It’s staggering that housing the homeless was never an issue of resource, but simply an issue of will. Since 2013, over 300 homeless individuals have died, with true numbers likely being much higher. The government could have prevented the suffering faced by the homeless a long time ago. Only when, the housing of the homeless becomes a precautionary measure towards the well-being of the general public, is it met with such urgency.

Since this announcement the national homelessness charity Crisis have raised £500,000 in public donations towards providing this shelter and support. Though it’s disgraceful that it has taken a global pandemic for the government to care about the homeless, it’s still a step in a right direction, at least for now.

Jeremy Selwyn

Community

Across the last few decades, a semblance of community has slowly diminished in Britain. Invasive gentrification, the rise of social media and Brexit (largely Brexit) have all contributed to the uprising and encouragement of individualist living. Individualism is simply a by-product of capitalism. The two rely on and cannot exist without one another.

Yet for the first time in decades, we are reminded that we are part of a collective community: locally, nationally and globally. For the first time, we collectively acknowledge a responsibility to care for and support society’s most vulnerable: whether this be our elder neighbours, the homeless or the immunocompromised.

Last Thursday’s, #ClapForOurCarers proved to be a remarkable moment towards this renewed sense of community. Though it’s a great sentiment in theory, it also must challenge us to re-evaluate the treatment of our undervalued and underpaid NHS workers. Reform, appreciation and re-evaluation must happen beyond a round of applause. NHS workers, and those in our supermarkets and distribution centres are the ones showing up and putting their own lives at risk to save lives. The same jobs the government previously deemed ” low skilled” are now “essential” to the functioning of this country.

The Independent

A socialist future?

Politically, the nation is at crossroads. There is more power and influence through unity than there is through division. This has been made evident through the UK’s latest support schemes. The PM has so far announced rescue packages for at-risk businesses, support for the self employed, mortgage holidays for home-owners and protection for renters from eviction. All of which are productive steps towards a collectivist and potentially socialist society.

Equal wealth distribution, access to free childcare, and a flexible working routine cannot be deemed as distant Marxist policies anymore. These base principles are a matter of life or death. Though, the reality of these circumstances extend well beyond politics.

This virus is ugly. It’s brutal, unrelenting and unsparing. Never in my lifetime have I experienced anxiety and uncertainty on a global scale. But never in my life have I also felt such a surreal connection to a global community. The crisis is reminding us that beyond embedded capitalist ideals and economic warfare, we must return to human nature. Ultimately, our human nature is to support, nurture and care for those around us.

You clapped for the NHS now clap for yourself

On Thursday 26th March at 8 pm, the public clapped for the NHS to show gratitude for the continuing service they provide amongst the ongoing rampage of COVID 19. Actors and royals, including Daniel Craig, Prince George, Princess Charlotte and Prince Louis joined in with the clapping.

Voting for a party that funds the NHS is sufficiently supporting the workers.

Dr Adrian Heald tweeted “Thanks for the #clapforNHS but after a decade of voting for a party who always stripped the NHS and tried to sell us off, it seems to be a bit of an empty gesture. Please vote in the future for a party who supports the NHS, if you mean that clap seriously.”

Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn has historically fought to protect the NHS. During the 2019 election, Labour accused Boris Johnson and the Labour party of preparing to sell the NHS in international trade talks.

He proposed that the Labour government would have passed an emergency “NHS protection” law if they won the general election, to ensure that US pharmaceutical companies cannot infiltrate the health service and increase the price of drugs. Below are some of the promises The Labour Party made during that election, in response to fears surrounding Conservative privatisation.

Boris Johnson won the election, Brexit continued, and here came the Coronavirus. We had three disasters for the price of one.

However, to understand the argument surrounding the privatisation of the NHS, the history must be explored. The NHS was once considered ‘politically untouchable’, but now private companies are able to have their hands on the NHS.

The History of Privatization

NHS - The National Archives

The NHS was launched in 1948, to be a publicly funded and publicly provided service, which directly employed doctors and other staff.

The Thatcher government from 1979, brought in compulsory competitive tendering, and the 1990 NHS and Community Care Act which separated commissioners from providers. This, in turn, created the market for NHS services and a considerable expansion of private healthcare.

The Tories introduced the Private Finance Initiative (PFI). This involved private, decade-long contracts to build and manage hospitals alongside other public infrastructure. The years of Tory governance saw the systematically defunding of the NHS and as a result, buildings crumbled and waiting lists became lengthy.

Tony Blair

Tony Blair announces his return to politics - and hints at ...
Tony Blair Former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1997 to 2007
Leader of the Labour Party from 1994 to 2007

New Labour Governments from 1997 believed the way to reduce NHS decline was through more private sector involvement.

New Labour marked the transitional period of converting the NHS from a public sector provider, to include the private sector under the illusion of choice and competition. New Labour’s reforms of the NHS was highly unpopular both within and outside the mainstream Labour Party.

New Labour reversed the principle of social democracy: society became the servant of the market, meaning the interests of the economy ruled. The state would be actively used to help people survive as individuals in the global economy.

The New Labour under the leadership of Tony Blair laid down the framework for the conservative government to follow in their footsteps.

David Cameron Says The NHS Is Safe In His Hands. Erm... | HuffPost UK
David Cameron in his slogan in 2015 said “We can’t go on like this, I’ll cut the deficit not the NHS”

Former Prime Minister David Cameron proclaimed the NHS was “ring-fenced” from cuts. Spending increases for the NHS dramatically decreased under austerity. An annual average of about 1 per cent between 2010 and 2015, the average during the leadership of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown was 6 per cent between 1997 and 2010.

In 2017, conservatives, under the leadership of Theresa May, voted against the 1% pay-rise cap for NHS nurses and firefighters, which was originally introduced under David Cameron.

Twitter user @Mackerssean77 tweeted “Sheer hypocrisy by Johnson clapping the health service personnel. The party that cheered the blocking of a pay rise for nurses and who are damaging the NHS..”

Very rarely do I take political sides, but the clapping for the NHS was a beautiful moment, it enriched the hearts mind and souls of NHS workers who deserved it. They are working tirelessly, around the clock to make sure we are safe. Clapping was the bare minimum we could do.

However, if you voted Conservative your clapping was a backhanded slap. The conservative government need the NHS more now than ever, but if through systematic underfunding and the very real and imminent threat of more privatisation where will the NHS be after the current COVID-19?

Clapping without the appropriate actions fall on deaf ears. Claps should be accompanied by writing letters to your local MP, and active protests. Most importantly appreciate the NHS whilst we have it. If you love the NHS vote within its best interests to have it funded as a strong healthcare system which enriches us all: rich, poor, black or white, male or female.

Robots: the answer to the Coronavirus healthcare crisis?

With a nationwide lockdown now in place due to COVID-19, many might understandably seek escapism from the news at times, watching online movies in their spare time, perhaps tuning into a hit series like Westworld; one of a number of science fiction shows that have reflected how advances in AI and robotics have captured public attention.

Westworld, the 1970’s sci-fi film; Source: phys.org

While shows like these are thought-provoking, they don’t tend to delve into the immediate social concerns regarding AI and robotics, such as whether they can truly operate in roles where sensitivity toward mental and physical health difficulties is intrinsic, or where protocols make these fundamental. This is particularly pertinent in the light of tragic accidents that have occurred, notably the ‘catalogue of errors’ that lead to the death of Stephen Pettitt in 2015, the first UK patient to undergo robotic heart surgery.

With little to show these concerns being addressed, what’s inevitably worrying is when robotics is presented as a solution to the UK’s NHS and social care sectors, despite underfunding and staff shortages being highlighted as the cause of its crisis.

The UK government’s intentions to move to AI use in the UK at the expense of recruiting migrants, was spotlighted last October when it announced £34 million of investment in developing AI and assistive robots to ‘revolutionise’ the underfunded care system.

This February, the government announced the end of ‘Free Movement’ for December 2020 and outlined this plan to move towards ‘automation’ and away from overseas recruitment. However, the plan doesn’t account for position care workers, who will fail to meet the 70 points needed for a Tier 2 General Work Visa due to their lower salary levels. The result may leave the sector with a possible ‘black hole’ of almost half a million care workers, according to the GMB.

Asimo robot; Source: Unsplash

The automation proposals are clearly a bid to substitute integral migrant staff, yet the problem remains that AI isn’t developed enough to work on its own in achieving this, let alone be rolled out across care homes and hospitals in just short of nine months’ time.

Channel 4’s hit-series Humans depicted a speculative future with robots replacing humans in various jobs, including NHS carers. While entertaining, the sci-fi show reflected what robots greatly lack – decision-making where human intuition, judgement and altruism are vitally involved. Indeed, ‘care robots’ still cannot empathetically attend to the largely unpredictable nature of the job and there is growing evidence that the use of algorithms, such as ones used by Whitehall to scan visa applications, can absorb human prejudices. When systems become corrupt with biases against people based on their nationality, skin colour or gender, new concerns are borne regarding patient safety and the standards of care they may receive at the hands of such humanoids.

Pepper the robot; Source: Unsplash

However, the world is living through an unprecedented era. In light of a multitude of ‘care robots’ and technologies coming to the aid of doctors and nurses around the globe, remarkably the COVID-19 crisis might actually be propelling the case for AI in the UK’s healthcare sector after all.

Although there are still concerns around ‘dystopian’ surveillance solutions utilised by police forces around the world to restrict people’s civil liberties, in the most part, technology has helped to reduce the spread of Coronavirus – and minimise the death toll.

Telehealth services over the phone, robo-disinfection and tracking apps seemed limited to the realm of sci-fi and cyberpunk fiction, until very recently. Now, such measures are becoming standardised in protecting public health. Countries such as China, South Korea, Israel and Singapore have all reduced the spread of infection by relying on technology.

Robot playing piano; Source: Unsplash

China has further been seeing success through devices such as infrared thermometer guns, and the pandemic there has expedited greatly, through the usage of robots and drones used for disinfection and distribution of food and medicine. Given that robots can’t contract the virus, it would be foreseeable and welcome to see these technologies assisting healthcare in the near future.

Yet even before the global epidemic, Japan has been at the forefront of AI development, namely in the care robots Pepper and Paro the Seal. For several years, Japan has been finding solutions to its burgeoning retired population and a shortage of care workers, and has found great success in its robots that have proven to reduce loneliness, depression and comfort those with dementia. These robots further allow human staff more time with their patients, whilst the humanoid appropriations fulfil all the mundane tasks.

Sci-fi novels have often explored themes such as ‘the singularity’ and the arrival of ‘sentient’ robots, and as yet, it remains an interesting speculative vision of a distant future. However, it is evident that there is room for AI to assist in the UK healthcare sector in a multitude of ways – if only the Government sought it as a way to support, rather than replace, the hard work of migrant staff.

This article has been written by Raoul Walawalker who is a content writer for the Immigration Advice Service; an organisation of UK and Ireland immigration lawyers that is currently offering free legal advice to all NHS staff amid the Coronavirus pandemic.