It may be little more than mere speculation and conjecture from this point forwards, with little more clarity than back in June 2016.
Boris Johnson, Dominic Rabb and Jeremy Hunt are effectively ruined by the fiasco. Michael Gove is untrustworthy in the eyes of the British people.
And yet, it remains likely a Brexiteer will come to the fore as newly elected Conservative leader. A vote of no-confidence may then be called when the consensus fails yet again. It will likely pass, leading to a general election in which no party wins an overall majority. A hung parliament will mean squabbling over the wreckage to form a minority, bungling government. The EU then proceeds to grant another delay, allowing them to present leaving the single market as yet more costly than imagined for other member states and hopefully for them less desirable among the UK populace. The limbo continues, despite polling showing the UK population no longer has the stomach for a divorce anymore.
Without a charismatic, dogmatic politician to take us out; there is only one scenario: Labour win the next general election since a new PM from the current stock cannot solve these intractable issues, largely because of in-faction bickering of the Tories and their weak negotiating hands.
Labour’s plan has been described as promising and negotiable by Tusk and Barnier. The Labour leader will call for a People’s Vote to either remain or the alternative: the negotiated Brexit deal.
Failing this, Brexit will remain a poisoned chalice for many years to come. A Tory leadership contest will lead to no possibility of an EU deal before November. The winner will be granted an extension to A50. The Tory party will try to fulfil the Brexit promise one way or another. This could lead to them squeezing out Corbyn in the next general election with a minority government that leads to instability, uncertainty and lost potential for the UK economy and societal pains as living standards suffer for years to come.
